Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards LE Havre. Nice had 8 days of rest, LE Havre 7 and had to travel 844 km.
Away travel844 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice46%
Draw27%
LE Havre27%
Nice48%
Draw26%
LE Havre26%
Nice46%
Draw27%
LE Havre28%
Nice39%
Draw27%
LE Havre34%
Nice47%
Draw26%
LE Havre27%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 27
Team strength
Nice
LE Havre
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
26
AttackIn forecast
20
35
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLE Havre
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.96
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
68%
Scored inContext
54%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.68
ShotsContext
10.61
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.68
37%
On target shareContext
31%
6.81
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
62%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.18
14.57
Shots allowedContext
12.21
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
3.93
BlocksContext
3.69
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
64%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
415
PassesContext
373
347
Accurate passesContext
303
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.29
FoulsContext
12.89
11.21
Fouls sufferedContext
13.75
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
40%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
10.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
34%
On target shareContext
24%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
63%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
7%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.70
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
60%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
411
PassesContext
371
340
Accurate passesContext
300
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.80
FoulsContext
11.80
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,088 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel844 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 844 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,088 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
24C. Vanhoutte
6H. Boudaoui
8M. Sanson
92J. Clauss
11S. Wahi
25M. Cho
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
13F. Doucouré
19L. Gourna-Douath
15A. Seko
26S. Ebonog
14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta
45I. Soumaré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- LE Havre-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.79
LE Havre · Away
0.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-9
- Scored
- 0.54
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nice | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–4 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–4 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Paris FC | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Lorient | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Toulouse | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Lens | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Marseille | L 1–5 H | L 2–6 A |
| Metz | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 27 of 81 · 1.00 per game | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Nice wins0 draws2 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025LE Havre3–1Nice
- 16 Feb 2025LE Havre1–3Nice
- 7 Dec 2024Nice2–1LE Havre
- 10 May 2024Nice1–0LE Havre
- 16 Dec 2023LE Havre3–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.96 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.11 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 46% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 46% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Nice | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.90 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.65 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 8.96 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 21/27 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 19/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 14/27 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 4.18 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Nice | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.60 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.67
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls27.4league 23.7
Penalties0.41league 0.36
Home wins56%league 48%
Nice3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Sep 25H · Paris FC1–11
- W2 May 25H · Reims1–02
- D14 Mar 25H · Auxerre1–12
LE Havre4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W8 Feb 26H · Strasbourg2–12
- D21 Sep 25H · Lorient1–13
- L15 Dec 24H · Strasbourg0–30
- L20 Oct 24H · Lyon0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice28 games · scored 33 · conceded 55
4
9
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
12
31-45
6
8
46-60
4
8
61-75
5
12
76-90
LE Havre28 games · scored 23 · conceded 36
1
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
10
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
8
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
