Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Le Mans. Nice had 6.2 days of rest, Le Mans 6.1 and had to travel 726 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel726 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nice44%
Draw24%
Le Mans32%
Nice43%
Draw26%
Le Mans31%
Nice43%
Draw25%
Le Mans33%
Nice36%
Draw25%
Le Mans39%
Nice44%
Draw24%
Le Mans33%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
Heat stress
26°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 1 km/h
- Humidity 83%
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 103
Team strength
Nice
Le Mans
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
26
AttackIn forecast
27
35
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLe Mans
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLe Mans
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.69
-0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
0%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.00
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
17%
On target shareContext
50%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
59%
Box shareContext
65%
0%
ConversionContext
20%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
24.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.50
BlocksContext
5.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
50%
Save rateContext
60%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
654
PassesContext
349
579
Accurate passesContext
257
89%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.50
FoulsContext
14.50
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
—
30%
Clean sheetsContext
—
10.40
ShotsContext
—
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
26%
On target shareContext
—
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
—
63%
Box shareContext
—
5%
ConversionContext
—
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
13.60
Shots allowedContext
—
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.30
BlocksContext
—
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
62%
Save rateContext
—
44%
PossessionIn forecast
—
417
PassesContext
—
346
Accurate passesContext
—
83%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.70
Team ratingContext
—
11.20
FoulsContext
—
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.10
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
DL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 1 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Le Mans |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 726 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,372 km | 280 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
28A. Witsel
39D. Coulibaly
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
29N. Ngoumou
11S. Wahi
Le Mans
Confirmed XI
1E. Hatfout(G)
5H. Voyer
16Raúl Torrente
15N. Boissé
8A. Lauray
22L. Calodat
10J. Vercruysse
11A. Bourabaa
26R. Bamba
25D. Guèye
14L. Mafouta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Le Mans
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Le Mans-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Le Mans · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Nice | Le Mans | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.50 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 9.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 4.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Nice | Le Mans | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 9.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 12.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.05
Red cards0.30league 0.14
Cards 5+52%league 18%
Fouls22.5league 22.7
Penalties0.37league 0.41
Home wins44%league 32%
Nice12 with this referee
Record3-4-5
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D17 May 26H · Metz0–02
- L21 Nov 25H · Marseille1–52
- D12 Apr 25A · Strasbourg2–22
- W27 Oct 24H · Monaco2–12
- D24 Apr 24A · Marseille2–23
Le MansNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Le Mans2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Le Mans2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
