Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 42). Lille usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Nice had 3.1 days of rest, Lille 3.2 and had to travel 829 km.
Away travel829 kmRest days3.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lille42%
Nice32%
Draw27%
Lille41%
Nice31%
Draw27%
Lille42%
Nice25%
Draw26%
Lille50%
Nice32%
Draw27%
Lille41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 73
Team strength
Nice
Lille
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
26
AttackIn forecast
42
35
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLille
1.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.44
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
89%
Scored inContext
78%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.22
ShotsContext
16.56
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.44
37%
On target shareContext
33%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.22
57%
Box shareContext
74%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.38
15.11
Shots allowedContext
10.22
5.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
4.78
BlocksContext
2.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
70%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
412
PassesContext
476
344
Accurate passesContext
404
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
13.00
FoulsContext
13.44
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.56
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
16.80
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
63%
Box shareContext
76%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.44
16.70
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
5.90
BlocksContext
2.33
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
66%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
388
PassesContext
496
317
Accurate passesContext
420
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.70
FoulsContext
12.90
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,312 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Lille
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel829 km1,023 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 3.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 829 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,312 km | 1,023 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
24C. Vanhoutte
99S. Abdul Samed
47Tiago Gouveia
10S. Diop
7J. Boga
90Kevin Carlos
Lille
Confirmed XI
16A. Bodart(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
27Félix Correia
29H. Igamane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lille+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lille · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–4 A | D 3–3 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 10 of 15 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Nice wins3 draws2 Lille wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2025Lille2–1Nice
- 10 Nov 2024Nice2–2Lille
- 19 May 2024Lille2–2Nice
- 11 Aug 2023Nice1–1Lille
- 29 Jan 2023Nice1–0Lille
- 31 Aug 2022Lille1–2Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.56 | 2.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 3.67 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 56% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Nice | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 10.44 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.89 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.66 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Nice | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 11.80 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.90 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.80
Red cards0.26league 0.30
Cards 5+37%league 37%
Fouls24.8league 24.8
Penalties0.36league 0.53
Home wins40%league 53%
Nice8 with this referee
Record1-3-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- L1 Dec 24A · Lyon1–42
- D25 Aug 24H · Toulouse1–14
- L31 Mar 24H · Nantes1–22
- L13 Jan 24A · Rennes0–20
- D27 Aug 23H · Lyon0–01
Lille7 with this referee
Record4-3-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W28 Sep 24A · LE Havre3–01
- W5 Apr 24H · Marseille3–11
- W4 Feb 24H · Clermont Foot4–00
- W1 Oct 23A · LE Havre2–00
- D12 Aug 22A · Nantes1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice9 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Lille9 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
12
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
13
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
