Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Nice had 7.9 days of rest, Lille 7.1 and had to travel 829 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel829 kmRest days7.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nice22%
Draw23%
Lille55%
Nice24%
Draw24%
Lille52%
Nice22%
Draw23%
Lille54%
Nice17%
Draw21%
Lille62%
Nice22%
Draw23%
Lille55%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
Warm
26°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 115
Team strength
Nice
Lille
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
26
AttackIn forecast
42
35
DefenceIn forecast
60
14
Form indexContext
71
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLille
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
2.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
25%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
12.25
ShotsContext
10.75
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
22%
On target shareContext
56%
7.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
59%
Box shareContext
69%
2%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.75
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.25
BlocksContext
3.25
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
56%
Save rateContext
82%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
622
PassesContext
443
548
Accurate passesContext
380
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.15
8.00
FoulsContext
11.00
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.50
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
45%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
63%
Box shareContext
69%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
472
PassesContext
471
397
Accurate passesContext
406
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.60
FoulsContext
10.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
DLDL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,076 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 2 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Lille
WDWLW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel829 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 71 · 10 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 829 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,076 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
28A. Witsel
39D. Coulibaly
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
4Alexsandro Ribeiro
3N. Ngoy
22Tiago Santos
6N. Bentaleb
21B. André
19B. Önal
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
18A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lille+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lille · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Nice wins4 draws2 Lille wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.10
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 10%
- 18 Apr 2026Lille0–0Nice
- 29 Oct 2025Nice2–0Lille
- 17 Jan 2025Lille2–1Nice
- 10 Nov 2024Nice2–2Lille
- 19 May 2024Lille2–2Nice
- 11 Aug 2023Nice1–1Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.25 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Nice | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.66 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.25 | 3.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Nice | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.33 | 9.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.90 | 3.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.09
Red cards0.24league 0.09
Cards 5+36%league 23%
Fouls24.5league 24.2
Penalties0.38league 0.30
Home wins42%league 40%
Nice14 with this referee
Record7-4-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.8
Pens for · against4 · 4
Reds4
- D26 Apr 26A · Marseille1–11
- L21 Mar 26H · Paris Saint Germain0–41
- L14 Dec 25A · Lens0–22
- D5 Oct 25A · Monaco2–23
- W25 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–11
Lille15 with this referee
Record5-4-6
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against4 · 4
Reds4
- L17 May 26H · Auxerre0–23
- L25 Jan 26H · Strasbourg1–42
- W30 Nov 25A · LE Havre1–04
- W24 Aug 25H · Monaco1–01
- W17 May 25H · Reims2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice4 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Lille4 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
