Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nice. Nice had 6.9 days of rest, Lorient 7 and had to travel 939 km.
Away travel939 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice43%
Draw28%
Lorient29%
Nice43%
Draw27%
Lorient30%
Nice44%
Draw28%
Lorient28%
Nice36%
Draw29%
Lorient35%
Nice43%
Draw28%
Lorient29%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 85
Team strength
Nice
Lorient
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
26
AttackIn forecast
28
35
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceLorient
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
73%
Scored inContext
68%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.23
ShotsContext
11.09
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
37%
On target shareContext
32%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.05
61%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.19
14.68
Shots allowedContext
10.18
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.91
4.27
BlocksContext
2.90
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
68%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
420
PassesContext
415
351
Accurate passesContext
352
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.41
FoulsContext
9.82
12.41
Fouls sufferedContext
13.91
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
64%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.40
BlocksContext
3.10
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
409
PassesContext
422
335
Accurate passesContext
359
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.70
FoulsContext
9.20
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel939 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 939 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 586 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
2A. Abdi
4Dante
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
33A. Mendy
24C. Vanhoutte
8M. Sanson
20T. Louchet
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
90Kevin Carlos
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
44D. Yongwa
3M. Talbi
2Igor Silva
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
8Noah Cadiou
11T. Le Bris
10P. Pagis
29D. Karim
12B. Dieng
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lorient+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.27
Lorient · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-6
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 2–2 HL 1–4 A | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–5 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lens | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Angers | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Marseille | L 1–5 H | L 0–4 A |
| Metz | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | L 1–7 H |
| Rennes | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| LE Havre | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game | 28 of 63 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Nice wins2 draws2 Lorient wins
Goals per game1.43 – 1.14
Over 2.557%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets14% · 14%
- 30 Nov 2025Lorient3–1Nice
- 19 Apr 2024Nice3–0Lorient
- 20 Aug 2023Lorient1–1Nice
- 19 Mar 2023Nice1–1Lorient
- 30 Oct 2022Lorient1–2Nice
- 17 Apr 2022Nice2–1Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.82 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.05 | 2.82 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 41% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 32% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Nice | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.20 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.35 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.76 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.62 | 8.05 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 17/21 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 15/21 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 11/21 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 3.82 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Nice | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.30 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.70 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.65
Red cards0.22league 0.30
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 24.1
Penalties0.29league 0.39
Home wins42%league 49%
Nice11 with this referee
Record7-2-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- W23 Aug 25H · Auxerre3–12
- L10 May 25A · Rennes0–21
- W20 Apr 25H · Angers2–11
- D10 Nov 24H · Lille2–22
- W1 Sep 24A · Angers4–14
Lorient6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L19 Apr 24A · Nice0–32
- D28 Jan 24H · LE Havre3–34
- L1 Oct 23H · Montpellier0–32
- W4 Sep 22A · Ajaccio1–01
- L20 Feb 22H · Montpellier0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice22 games · scored 27 · conceded 40
3
8
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
8
31-45
5
7
46-60
3
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
Lorient22 games · scored 29 · conceded 33
3
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
8
3
31-45
5
7
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
13
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
