Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 40). Marseille usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Nice had 12.1 days of rest, Marseille 13.2 and had to travel 159 km.
Away travel159 kmRest days12.1 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nice32%
Draw27%
Marseille41%
Nice33%
Draw27%
Marseille40%
Nice32%
Draw27%
Marseille41%
Nice25%
Draw26%
Marseille49%
Nice33%
Draw27%
Marseille40%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 90
Team strength
Nice
Marseille
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
26
AttackIn forecast
48
35
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceMarseille
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.92
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
83%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
10.33
ShotsContext
13.75
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.36
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
58%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.83
Shots allowedContext
8.75
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
5.50
BlocksContext
2.67
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
75%
Save rateContext
78%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
388
PassesContext
590
323
Accurate passesContext
532
83%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.67
FoulsContext
12.25
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
9.58
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.90
ShotsContext
13.40
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
37%
On target shareContext
42%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.86
18.80
Shots allowedContext
8.60
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
7.40
BlocksContext
2.63
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
76%
Save rateContext
76%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
332
PassesContext
573
266
Accurate passesContext
513
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.00
FoulsContext
12.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,216 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel159 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 159 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,216 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
99S. Abdul Samed
24C. Vanhoutte
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
9T. Moffi
25M. Cho
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
5L. Balerdi
28B. Pavard
22T. Weah
18A. Vermeeren
19G. Kondogbia
14Igor Paixão
8A. Gomes
10M. Greenwood
97P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Marseille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.83
Marseille · Away
1.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rennes | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 H | W 5–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–4 A | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–3 A | W 6–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 10 of 24 · 1.25 per game | 18 of 24 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Nice wins2 draws3 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.38
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 26 Jan 2025Nice2–0Marseille
- 14 Sep 2024Marseille2–0Nice
- 24 Apr 2024Marseille2–2Nice
- 21 Oct 2023Nice1–0Marseille
- 5 Feb 2023Marseille1–3Nice
- 28 Aug 2022Nice0–3Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.92 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 42% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Nice | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 4.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.64 | 3.45 | |
| Match total | 10.82 | 8.36 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 91% 10/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 8/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.41 | 4.09 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Nice | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 6.89 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.88
Red cards0.28league 0.31
Cards 5+51%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 24.4
Penalties0.37league 0.49
Home wins43%league 51%
Nice10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D12 Apr 25A · Strasbourg2–22
- W27 Oct 24H · Monaco2–12
- D24 Apr 24A · Marseille2–23
- L3 Mar 24A · Toulouse1–22
- L16 Dec 23A · LE Havre1–33
Marseille14 with this referee
Record9-3-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against6 · 2
Reds4
- W26 Sep 25A · Strasbourg2–14
- L15 Aug 25A · Rennes0–13
- W17 May 25H · Rennes4–23
- W6 Apr 25H · Toulouse3–22
- D24 Apr 24H · Nice2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice12 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Marseille12 games · scored 28 · conceded 11
2
0-15
6
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
61-75
10
4
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 23 · conceded 10
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
