Nice vs Metz – 17 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 34 Sun, May 17 · 20:00 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice 16th · 31 pts · 33 played DDDDL

0–0Full time

Metz 18th · 16 pts · 33 played LLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nice were clear favourites.

Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 11). Absences weigh more on Metz. Nice had 7 days of rest, Metz 7 and had to travel 608 km.

Away travel608 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Nice62%

Draw23%

Metz16%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.88

Nice60%

Draw23%

Metz17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.93

Nice60%

Draw23%

Metz17%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.89

Nice54%

Draw25%

Metz21%

Expected goals 1.72 – 0.99

Nice62%

Draw22%

Metz16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Over 2.5 53% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 101

Team strength

Nice

Metz

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 11

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

26 AttackIn forecast 11

35 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Metz

1.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.97

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

70% Scored inContext 58%

15% Clean sheetsContext 18%

10.27 ShotsContext 9.45

3.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

37% On target shareContext 31%

6.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

63% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.75

14.33 Shots allowedContext 14.55

5.16 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.55

3.79 BlocksContext 3.52

3.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.68

65% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 49%

406 PassesContext 440

336 Accurate passesContext 379

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.06 FoulsContext 11.00

11.36 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.97 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

60% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.40 ShotsContext 11.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

36% On target shareContext 29%

5.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

66% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.71

13.30 Shots allowedContext 14.90

5.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.80 BlocksContext 4.11

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

59% Save rateContext 60%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

380 PassesContext 439

307 Accurate passesContext 379

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.00 FoulsContext 11.40

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,076 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Metz

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel608 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Metz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	608 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,076 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	97	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

37Kojo Peprah Oppong 4Dante 33A. Mendy

2A. Abdi 24C. Vanhoutte 8M. Sanson 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 32K. Boudache

11S. Wahi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Metz Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Jonathan Fischer(G)

2M. Colin 15T. Yegbe 38S. Sané 70B. Sarr

12Alpha Touré 21B. Stambouli 33Believe Munongo

9G. Abuashvili 11G. Kvilitaia 10G. Hein

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Metz Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice+2.0 pp
Draw-0.9 pp
Metz-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home 1.19points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-7-5
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.69

Metz · Away 0.38points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-12
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 2.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nice	Metz
Auxerre	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A
Lens	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H
Marseille	D 1–1 AL 1–5 H	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H
Lille	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HL 1–6 A
LE Havre	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A	D 4–4 AD 0–0 H
Strasbourg	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–4 HL 0–1 A	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H
Angers	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Rennes	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 AL 0–1 H
Paris FC	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H	L 1–3 HL 2–3 A
Lorient	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A	L 0–4 HD 1–1 A
Lyon	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H	L 2–5 HL 0–3 A
Monaco	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	L 1–2 HL 2–5 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Nantes	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Toulouse	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H	L 3–4 HL 0–4 A
Points	31 of 96 · 0.97 per game	13 of 96 · 0.41 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Nice wins0 draws2 Metz wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 20%

9 Nov 2025Metz2–1Nice
27 Jan 2024Nice1–0Metz
7 Oct 2023Metz0–1Nice
23 Jan 2022Metz0–2Nice
27 Nov 2021Nice0–1Metz

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	1.12	0.97
Conceded per game	1.82	2.30
Match goals	2.94	3.27	2.81
Over 1.5	79%	76%
Over 2.5	52%	64%	53%
Over 3.5	42%	42%
Both teams scored	61%	52%	51%
Clean sheets	15%	18%
Failed to score	30%	42%
Games	33	33

	Nice	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.70	2.40
Match goals	2.40	3.40	2.81
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	40%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	4.66	4.16
Corners conceded	5.72	5.06
Match total	10.38	9.22	9.34
Over 8.5	72% 23/32	47% 15/32
Over 9.5	66% 21/32	31% 10/32
Over 10.5	50% 16/32	22% 7/32
Cards
Cards	2.06	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	1.52
Match total	4.06	3.22	3.91
Over 3.5	58% 19/33	48% 16/33
Over 4.5	36% 12/33	18% 6/33

	Nice	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	5.10
Corners conceded	5.50	5.40
Match total	9.90	10.50	9.34
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.60	3.50	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.31league 3.66

Red cards0.31league 0.26

Cards 5+52%league 36%

Fouls22.5league 23.6

Penalties0.38league 0.37

Home wins45%league 46%

Nice11 with this referee

Record3-3-5 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L21 Nov 25H · Marseille1–52
D12 Apr 25A · Strasbourg2–22
W27 Oct 24H · Monaco2–12
D24 Apr 24A · Marseille2–23
L3 Mar 24A · Toulouse1–22

Metz7 with this referee

Record3-0-4 Cards · opp.3.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

L18 Jan 26A · Strasbourg1–23
W26 Nov 23A · Lorient3–21
W14 May 22H · Angers1–03
L10 Apr 22A · Bordeaux1–32
W16 Jan 22A · Reims1–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.