Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were clear favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 13). Nice had 3.8 days of rest, Paris FC 7 and had to travel 686 km.
Away travel686 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nice66%
Draw20%
Paris FC14%
Nice66%
Draw20%
Paris FC13%
Nice66%
Draw20%
Paris FC13%
Nice59%
Draw23%
Paris FC18%
Nice66%
Draw20%
Paris FC13%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 20
Team strength
Nice
Paris FC
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
26
AttackIn forecast
46
35
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceParis FC
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.80
ShotsContext
14.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
41%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
57%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.80
Shots allowedContext
12.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.40
BlocksContext
5.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
56%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
490
PassesContext
514
426
Accurate passesContext
453
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.80
FoulsContext
9.20
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.60
ShotsContext
14.80
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
31%
On target shareContext
41%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
61%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.40
BlocksContext
5.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
56%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
446
PassesContext
514
378
Accurate passesContext
453
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.10
FoulsContext
9.20
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,089 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel686 km1,010 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 686 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,089 km | 1,010 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
64M. Bombito
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
99S. Abdul Samed
24C. Vanhoutte
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
9T. Moffi
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
16Obed Nkambadio(G)
28T. De Smet
6Otávio
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou
21M. Lopez
27M. Simon
9W. Geubbels
10I. Kebbal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Paris FC+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Paris FC · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.20 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nice | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.20 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 20% | |
| Games | 6 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Nice | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 10.00 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 1/5 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.95league 3.73
Red cards0.20league 0.37
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls27.7league 24.1
Penalties0.45league 0.53
Home wins50%league 65%
Nice2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W2 May 25H · Reims1–02
- D14 Mar 25H · Auxerre1–12
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice5 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Paris FC5 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Paris FC5 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
