Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 36). Nice had ? days of rest, Toulouse ? and had to travel 468 km.
Away travel468 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Nice51%
Draw26%
Toulouse23%
Nice51%
Draw25%
Toulouse23%
Nice51%
Draw26%
Toulouse23%
Nice43%
Draw27%
Toulouse29%
Nice51%
Draw25%
Toulouse23%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 74
Team strength
Nice
Toulouse
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
26
AttackIn forecast
45
35
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceToulouse
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.90
ShotsContext
11.10
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
33%
On target shareContext
44%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
66%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.80
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.60
BlocksContext
3.22
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
70%
Save rateContext
54%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
435
PassesContext
389
366
Accurate passesContext
320
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.30
FoulsContext
12.40
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel468 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
26M. Bard
20T. Louchet
6H. Boudaoui
92J. Clauss
21I. Jansson
19B. Bouanani
9T. Moffi
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
3M. McKenzie
4C. Cresswell
19D. Sidibé
24D. Methalie
77M. Sauer
29J. Canvot
15A. Dønnum
10G. Gboho
9F. Magri
31N. Edjouma
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Toulouse+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
No home games yet this season.
Toulouse · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Nice wins4 draws1 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.83 – 0.83
Over 2.517%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 2 Feb 2025Toulouse1–1Nice
- 25 Aug 2024Nice1–1Toulouse
- 3 Mar 2024Toulouse2–1Nice
- 26 Nov 2023Nice1–0Toulouse
- 21 May 2023Nice0–0Toulouse
- 7 Aug 2022Toulouse1–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 52% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Nice | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 52% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 13.67 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Nice | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 8.11 | 13.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 3.67
Red cards0.27league 0.33
Cards 5+42%league 67%
Fouls24.1league 23.3
Penalties0.27league 0.00
Home wins36%league 67%
Nice7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- D2 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–12
- W20 Sep 24H · Saint Etienne8–00
- W28 Apr 24A · Strasbourg3–13
- W1 Feb 23A · Lens1–02
- L2 Jan 23A · Rennes1–21
Toulouse7 with this referee
Record3-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W17 May 25A · Saint Etienne3–22
- D2 Feb 25H · Nice1–12
- W13 Dec 24H · Saint Etienne2–13
- W27 Oct 24A · Montpellier3–02
- D3 Dec 23H · Lorient1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NiceToulouseNice10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
