OFI
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 19:00
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel834 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
OFI—%
Draw—%
CSKA Sofia—%
Weather (Heraklion)
No weather data yet
RefereeS. Jovanović
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 16
Team strength
OFI
CSKA Sofia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
18
AttackIn forecast
19
25
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCSKA Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OFICSKA Sofia
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
7.50
ShotsContext
—
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
44%
On target shareContext
21%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
—
66%
Box shareContext
—
20%
ConversionContext
0%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
15.80
Shots allowedContext
—
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.10
BlocksContext
—
5.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
84%
Save rateContext
33%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
—
386
PassesContext
—
308
Accurate passesContext
—
80%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.90
Team ratingContext
—
13.90
FoulsContext
—
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OFI
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
CSKA Sofia
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel834 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OFI |
CSKA Sofia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 834 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OFI
Confirmed XI
31N. Christogeorgos(G)
15A. Poungouras
16C. Sielis
5K. Kostoulas
3N. Athanasiou
41A. Bouchalakis
14T. Androutsos
21I. Apostolakis
10Aitor Cantalapiedra
18T. Nuss
11T. Fountas
CSKA Sofia
Confirmed XI
21F. Lapoukhov(G)
19A. Yordanov
32F. Rodriguez
14T. Ivanov
2Pastor
8S. Sensi
5J. Gbamin
7M. Ebong
28I. Pittas
9L. Godoy
99J. Eto'o
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OFI
Absences are shown before kick-off
CSKA Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
OFI · Home
No home games yet this season.
CSKA Sofia · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| OFI | CSKA Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| OFI | CSKA Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OFI | CSKA Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.88 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| OFI | CSKA Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.33 | 10.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 6.00 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · S. Jovanović 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 3.88
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+25%league 50%
Fouls20.8league 25.1
Penalties0.13league 0.38
Home wins25%league 38%
OFINo previous matches with this referee.
CSKA SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OFICSKA SofiaOFI10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
6
4
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
CSKA Sofia7 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.