Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Sep 20 · 15:00 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 7 pts · 7 played
1–2Full time
RAAL La Louvière 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. OH Leuven had 7 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 6.8 and had to travel 55 km.

Away travel55 kmRest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
OH Leuven39%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.17
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28
OH Leuven39%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Expected goals 1.32 – 1.17
OH Leuven32%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière39%
Expected goals 1.17 – 1.32
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28
Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)

No weather data yet

RefereeWesli De Cremer
  • Cards per match 3.6
  • Penalties per match 0.74
  • Matches 19

Team strength

OH LeuvenRAAL La Louvière
21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 17
17 AttackIn forecast 15
30 DefenceIn forecast 15
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

RAAL La Louvière

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenRAAL La Louvière
0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.67
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
71% Scored inContext 57%
29% Clean sheetsContext 43%
11.86 ShotsContext 10.14
3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.57
28% On target shareContext 25%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.57
73% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 7%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.80
12.29 Shots allowedContext 12.57
5.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.57
3.00 BlocksContext 3.14
3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.57
67% Save rateContext 82%
43% PossessionIn forecast 34%
325 PassesContext 258
247 Accurate passesContext 177
76% Pass accuracyContext 68%
6.64 Team ratingContext 6.79
15.00 FoulsContext 12.00
10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 12.29
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.67
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46
-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
70% Scored inContext 57%
30% Clean sheetsContext 43%
11.30 ShotsContext 10.14
3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.57
27% On target shareContext 25%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.57
70% Box shareContext 63%
7% ConversionContext 7%
1.89 OffsidesContext 1.80
13.10 Shots allowedContext 12.57
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.57
3.33 BlocksContext 3.14
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.57
71% Save rateContext 82%
44% PossessionIn forecast 34%
346 PassesContext 258
265 Accurate passesContext 177
76% Pass accuracyContext 68%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.79
13.90 FoulsContext 12.00
10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.29
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 7 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel55 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven RAAL La Louvière
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km55 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways178 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.28.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-4-1-2
1T. Leysen(G)
5T. Ominami 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx
30T. Akimoto 4B. Verstraete 24Ł. Łakomy 27Óscar Gil
8S. Schrijvers
39S. Kaba 22J. Mijatović
RAAL La Louvière Confirmed XI
3-5-2
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego 99Y. Okou 4Wagane Faye
5T. Lutonda 23J. Ito 15S. Lahssaini 98Owen Maes 11J. Liongola
22J. Afriyie 29O. Mendy

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33
RAAL La Louvière · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenRAAL La Louvière
Standard Liege W 1–0 H L 0–2 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–5 A D 0–0 H
Charleroi D 2–2 H W 1–0 H
Points4 of 9 · 1.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 0.860.71
Conceded per game 2.001.14
Match goals 2.861.86 2.49
Over 1.5 71%43%
Over 2.5 57%29% 45%
Over 3.5 43%14%
Both teams scored 43%29% 51%
Clean sheets 29%43%
Failed to score 29%43%
Games77
OH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreForecast
Scored per game 0.860.71
Conceded per game 2.001.14
Match goals 2.861.86 2.49
Over 1.5 71%43%
Over 2.5 57%29% 45%
Over 3.5 43%14%
Both teams scored 43%29% 51%
Clean sheets 29%43%
Failed to score 29%43%
Games77

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.43
Corners conceded4.713.57
Match total9.718.009.55
Over 8.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 9.557% 4/729% 2/7
Over 10.543% 3/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards3.141.43
Opponent cards2.431.00
Match total5.572.433.89
Over 3.586% 6/714% 1/7
Over 4.557% 4/714% 1/7
OH LeuvenRAAL La LouvièreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.704.43
Corners conceded5.503.57
Match total10.208.009.55
Over 8.570% 7/1029% 2/7
Over 9.560% 6/1029% 2/7
Over 10.540% 4/1014% 1/7
Cards
Cards3.101.43
Opponent cards2.101.00
Match total5.202.433.89
Over 3.580% 8/1014% 1/7
Over 4.560% 6/1014% 1/7

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Wesli De Cremer 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.42league 3.65
Red cards0.21league 0.24
Cards 5+26%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 22.8
Penalties0.74league 0.38
Home wins68%league 45%
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1
  • L10 Aug 25A · Antwerp1–35
  • L10 Feb 24A · Standard Liege0–13
  • W1 Sep 23H · Kortrijk3–01
RAAL La Louvière

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

OH Leuven7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 4 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière7 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
1 4 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 4 0-15
2 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 4 76-90
RAAL La Louvière7 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 61-75
1 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Genk Charleroi 01 Gent Dender 30 OH Leuven RAAL La Louvière 12 Anderlecht Antwerp 00 KVC Westerlo Standard Liege 02 Club Brugge KV St. Truiden 20 KV Mechelen Cercle Brugge 00