OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 23). OH Leuven had 15.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 14.1 and had to travel.
Rest days15.1 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
OH Leuven38%
Draw27%
St. Truiden35%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden34%
OH Leuven38%
Draw27%
St. Truiden35%
OH Leuven31%
Draw27%
St. Truiden42%
OH Leuven39%
Draw27%
St. Truiden34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 8
Team strength
OH Leuven
St. Truiden
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
17
AttackIn forecast
37
30
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenSt. Truiden
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
71%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.50
ShotsContext
14.79
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
32%
On target shareContext
30%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
69%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.14
Shots allowedContext
10.21
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.85
BlocksContext
3.08
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
69%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
328
PassesContext
441
253
Accurate passesContext
363
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.91
16.36
FoulsContext
12.43
10.64
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
15.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
65%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.89
10.90
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.44
BlocksContext
2.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
77%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
338
PassesContext
436
260
Accurate passesContext
359
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
16.80
FoulsContext
11.50
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 14.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
27Óscar Gil
7T. Verlinden
4B. Verstraete
24Ł. Łakomy
19C. Ikwuemesi
33M. Maertens
39S. Kaba
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
6R. Yamamoto
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
St. Truiden · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | W 4–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 15 of 42 · 1.07 per game | 24 of 42 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins1 draws0 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 9 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–1OH Leuven
- 22 Oct 2023OH Leuven4–0St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.50 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| OH Leuven | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 3.62 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 10.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 5/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.07 | 1.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 5.43 | 3.71 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 8/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| OH Leuven | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 11.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.88
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls22.0league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins50%league 44%
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25H · Club Brugge KV0–12
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven14 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
St. Truiden14 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
