OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Standard Liege. OH Leuven had 14 days of rest, Standard Liege 8 and had to travel 66 km.
Away travel66 kmRest days14 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
OH Leuven31%
Draw24%
Standard Liege44%
OH Leuven32%
Draw26%
Standard Liege42%
OH Leuven31%
Draw24%
Standard Liege44%
OH Leuven25%
Draw23%
Standard Liege52%
OH Leuven32%
Draw24%
Standard Liege44%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.41
- Matches 27
Team strength
OH Leuven
Standard Liege
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
17
AttackIn forecast
29
30
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenStandard Liege
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
3.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
3.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
15.67
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
14%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.33
59%
Box shareContext
73%
4%
ConversionContext
15%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
26.00
Shots allowedContext
16.67
9.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
9.00
BlocksContext
3.33
6.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
67%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
348
PassesContext
485
274
Accurate passesContext
380
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.50
FoulsContext
12.33
7.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
29%
On target shareContext
38%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
67%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.63
16.50
Shots allowedContext
17.10
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.70
BlocksContext
5.00
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
67%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
351
PassesContext
400
283
Accurate passesContext
313
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.30
FoulsContext
8.90
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
LL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 28 · 0 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 21 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 66 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
9A. Traoré
8S. Schrijvers
4B. Verstraete
27Óscar Gil
6W. George
19C. Ikwuemesi
21W. Balikwisha
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
11A. Abid
94C. Nielsen
15S. Drammeh
17Bernard Nguene
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Standard Liege · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 OH Leuven wins0 draws4 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 8 May 2026Standard Liege2–1OH Leuven
- 4 Apr 2026OH Leuven1–3Standard Liege
- 12 Dec 2025Standard Liege0–1OH Leuven
- 31 Aug 2025OH Leuven1–0Standard Liege
- 10 Feb 2024Standard Liege1–0OH Leuven
- 30 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–2Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 11.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 10.34 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| OH Leuven | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.40 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.60 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 2.22
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 15%
Fouls22.4league 21.0
Penalties0.41league 0.30
Home wins30%league 52%
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Apr 26H · KVC Westerlo0–21
- W7 Feb 26A · Gent3–15
- D25 Oct 25A · KV Mechelen1–14
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Sep 25A · KVC Westerlo2–04
- D5 Nov 23H · KV Mechelen1–11
- D2 Sep 23H · RWDM1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven2 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Standard Liege3 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
8
46-60
5
61-75
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
