Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus

Olympiakos Piraeus

2–1Full time

Jagiellonia

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Olympiakos Piraeus were clear favourites.

Olympiakos Piraeus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Olympiakos Piraeus. Olympiakos Piraeus had 36.1 days of rest, Jagiellonia 20.1 and had to travel 1,690 km.

Away travel1,690 kmRest days36.1 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Olympiakos Piraeus63%

Draw20%

Jagiellonia17%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.01

Olympiakos Piraeus63%

Draw21%

Jagiellonia16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Olympiakos Piraeus64%

Draw20%

Jagiellonia16%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.98

Olympiakos Piraeus56%

Draw22%

Jagiellonia22%

Expected goals 1.92 – 1.13

Olympiakos Piraeus63%

Draw20%

Jagiellonia17%

Expected goals 2.11 – 1.00

Over 2.5 61% Both score 56% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Piraeus)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 107

Team strength

Olympiakos Piraeus

Jagiellonia

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

63 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

54 AttackIn forecast 27

68 DefenceIn forecast 28

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Jagiellonia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Olympiakos Piraeus

Jagiellonia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

0.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.76 Goals minus xGContext +0.55

40% Scored inContext 100%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.50 ShotsContext 15.17

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.33

26% On target shareContext 48%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

55% Box shareContext 65%

5% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

6.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00

2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.40 BlocksContext 4.78

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

80% Save rateContext 83%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

483 PassesContext 419

386 Accurate passesContext 345

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.00 FoulsContext 13.89

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.67

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Olympiakos Piraeus

Rest36.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Jagiellonia

Rest20.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,690 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Olympiakos Piraeus	Jagiellonia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	36.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug	20.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,690 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	29	29

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Olympiakos Piraeus Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Ortega(G)

70S. Onyemaechi 5L. Pirola 45P. Retsos 2E. Saliakas

19R. Freuler 32S. Hezze

10Gelson Martins 22Chiquinho 20Jota Silva

34A. González

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Jagiellonia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

50S. Abramowicz(G)

23Guilherme Montóia 44A. Konstantopoulos 5Bernardo Vital 15N. Wojtuszek

19A. Klynge 6T. Romanczuk 11Jesús Imaz

7K. Szmyt 99N. Prelec 27Rodrigo Conceição

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Olympiakos Piraeus Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Jagiellonia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Olympiakos Piraeus-1.0 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Jagiellonia+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus · Home No home games yet this season.

Jagiellonia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Olympiakos Piraeus	Jagiellonia	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.17
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	61%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Olympiakos Piraeus	Jagiellonia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.25
Conceded per game	1.00	0.75
Match goals	1.50	3.00	3.17
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	61%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	56%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Olympiakos Piraeus	Jagiellonia	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Olympiakos Piraeus	Jagiellonia	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	4.63
Corners conceded	2.75	4.63
Match total	8.88	9.26	13.50
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	2.60
Match total	3.20	4.50	2.00
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 2.00

Red cards0.18league 0.00

Cards 5+44%league 0%

Fouls22.0league 25.0

Penalties0.31league 0.00

Home wins55%league 50%

Olympiakos Piraeus2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L5 Oct 25A · PAOK1–23
W24 Nov 24H · AEK Athens FC4–13

Jagiellonia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.