Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Osasuna had 4 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 3.1 and had to travel 317 km.
Away travel317 kmRest days4 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Osasuna30%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid43%
Osasuna28%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid46%
Osasuna29%
Draw27%
Atletico Madrid44%
Osasuna23%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid51%
Osasuna30%
Draw26%
Atletico Madrid44%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 16
Team strength
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
50
AttackIn forecast
82
50
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaAtletico Madrid
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.66
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
69%
Scored inContext
86%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
11.00
ShotsContext
13.09
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
34%
On target shareContext
39%
7.91
Shots in the boxContext
9.12
68%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.55
12.71
Shots allowedContext
10.66
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
3.42
BlocksContext
2.70
3.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
73%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
378
PassesContext
503
305
Accurate passesContext
431
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.09
FoulsContext
10.89
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
9.51
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.80
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
40%
On target shareContext
29%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
66%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.33
BlocksContext
3.60
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
65%
Save rateContext
78%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
410
PassesContext
421
338
Accurate passesContext
352
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.70
FoulsContext
11.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel317 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 8 May | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 604 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
13Aitor Fernández(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
18Raúl Moro
16Moi Gómez
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
21O. Vargas
6Koke
4Rodrigo Mendoza
11T. Almada
22A. Lookman
7A. Griezmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Atletico Madrid-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.88points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.18
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.18points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-7
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.24
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 42 of 102 · 1.24 per game | 60 of 102 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Osasuna wins0 draws8 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.50
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets10% · 70%
- 18 Oct 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna
- 15 May 2025Osasuna2–0Atletico Madrid
- 12 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna
- 19 May 2024Atletico Madrid1–4Osasuna
- 28 Sep 2023Osasuna0–2Atletico Madrid
- 21 May 2023Atletico Madrid3–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.66 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.49 | 2.74 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 51% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 14% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Osasuna | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.26 | 6.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.12 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 10.33 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 74% 25/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 26% 8/31 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 3/31 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.26 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 27/35 | 63% 22/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 19/35 | 40% 14/35 | |
| Osasuna | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.30 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.88league 4.28
Red cards0.38league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 47%
Fouls23.8league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins50%league 48%
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Mar 26H · Girona1–02
- W8 Dec 25H · Levante2–02
- D3 Nov 25A · Oviedo0–00
Atletico Madrid1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Dec 25A · Girona3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna34 games · scored 42 · conceded 45
7
1
0-15
2
7
16-30
12
7
31-45
8
46-60
2
13
61-75
19
9
76-90
Atletico Madrid35 games · scored 58 · conceded 38
12
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
7
31-45
8
3
46-60
10
8
61-75
14
9
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
