Osasuna vs Elche – 25 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Thu, Sep 25 · 18:30 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 13th · 6 pts · 5 played LWLWL

1–1Full time

Elche 7th · 9 pts · 5 played DDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Osasuna were slight favourites.

Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 39). Elche usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Osasuna had 5 days of rest, Elche 4 and had to travel 513 km.

Away travel513 kmRest days5 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Osasuna53%

Draw26%

Elche21%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.97

Osasuna56%

Draw24%

Elche20%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.00

Osasuna53%

Draw26%

Elche21%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.95

Osasuna46%

Draw27%

Elche27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.09

Osasuna55%

Draw24%

Elche21%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.02

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Iruñea)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.67
Matches 6

Team strength

Osasuna

Elche

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

50 AttackIn forecast 39

50 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Elche

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.47

60% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.40 ShotsContext 9.60

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

38% On target shareContext 33%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

61% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 15%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.40 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.00 BlocksContext 2.80

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

83% Save rateContext 78%

42% PossessionIn forecast 58%

360 PassesContext 519

287 Accurate passesContext 454

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.80 FoulsContext 12.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 17.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

80% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 11.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

32% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

69% Box shareContext 72%

11% ConversionContext 11%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.67

14.00 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.88 BlocksContext 3.78

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

80% Save rateContext 81%

44% PossessionIn forecast 58%

362 PassesContext 482

291 Accurate passesContext 408

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.30 FoulsContext 12.90

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km690 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel513 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep	4La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	513 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	690 km	946 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1Sergio Herrera(G)

5Jorge Herrando 24Catena 22F. Boyomo

6Lucas Torró

23Abel Bretones 16Moi Gómez 7Moncayola 2Iker Benito

17A. Budimir 21Víctor Muñoz

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Elche Confirmed XI

5-3-2

13Iñaki Peña(G)

39Héctor Fort 21L. Pétrot 23Víctor Chust 4Bambo Diaby 15Alvaro Núñez

8Marc Aguado 14Aleix Febas 19G. Diangana

9André Silva 20Á. Rodríguez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Osasuna-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Elche+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.00

Elche · Away 1.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Osasuna wins4 draws0 Elche wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 0%

8 Apr 2023Osasuna2–1Elche
22 Jan 2023Elche1–1Osasuna
1 May 2022Elche1–1Osasuna
29 Nov 2021Osasuna1–1Elche
18 Apr 2021Osasuna2–0Elche
22 Dec 2020Elche2–2Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	0.80
Match goals	1.60	2.20	2.63
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	5	5

	Osasuna	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	0.80
Match goals	1.60	2.20	2.63
Over 1.5	40%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	20%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.40
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	7.00	6.40	9.40
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	20% 1/5
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	20% 1/5
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	4.20	4.00	4.18
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	20% 1/5

	Osasuna	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	5.80
Match total	10.00	9.80	9.40
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	3.90	4.10	4.18
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.90

Red cards0.33league 0.26

Cards 5+33%league 40%

Fouls24.5league 24.6

Penalties0.67league 0.31

Home wins83%league 47%

Osasuna2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L19 Aug 25A · Real Madrid0–11
W24 Apr 25H · Sevilla1–04

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.