Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Osasuna. Osasuna had 4.9 days of rest, Espanyol 4 and had to travel 348 km.
Away travel348 kmRest days4.9 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Osasuna50%
Draw26%
Espanyol24%
Osasuna49%
Draw26%
Espanyol25%
Osasuna51%
Draw26%
Espanyol24%
Osasuna42%
Draw27%
Espanyol30%
Osasuna51%
Draw25%
Espanyol24%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 44
Team strength
Osasuna
Espanyol
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
50
AttackIn forecast
36
50
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaEspanyol
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
69%
Scored inContext
75%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
11.33
ShotsContext
12.33
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.03
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.21
Shots in the boxContext
7.76
68%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.24
OffsidesContext
2.42
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.03
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.42
BlocksContext
3.54
3.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.62
72%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
381
PassesContext
345
308
Accurate passesContext
272
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.08
FoulsContext
13.69
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.69
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
13.00
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
30%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
68%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
5%
3.50
OffsidesContext
3.25
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.13
BlocksContext
3.40
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
64%
Save rateContext
71%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
418
PassesContext
330
347
Accurate passesContext
255
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.70
FoulsContext
14.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel348 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 348 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 1,641 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
7Moncayola
6Lucas Torró
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
11Pere Milla
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
19Kike García
8Edu Expósito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Espanyol+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.78points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-4
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.22
Espanyol · Away
0.94points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-9
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Mallorca | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 105 · 1.20 per game | 39 of 105 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Osasuna wins4 draws1 Espanyol wins
Goals per game0.71 – 0.43
Over 2.50%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 43%
- 31 Aug 2025Espanyol1–0Osasuna
- 18 May 2025Osasuna2–0Espanyol
- 14 Dec 2024Espanyol0–0Osasuna
- 4 Feb 2023Espanyol1–1Osasuna
- 20 Oct 2022Osasuna1–0Espanyol
- 8 May 2022Espanyol1–1Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.58 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 25% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Osasuna | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.41 | 4.66 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 4.77 | |
| Match total | 8.47 | 9.43 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 28% 9/32 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 4/32 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.47 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.47 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.94 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 28/36 | 69% 25/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 20/36 | 61% 22/36 | |
| Osasuna | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.78 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 6.30 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 4.29
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls23.3league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins39%league 48%
Osasuna4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W26 Apr 26H · Sevilla2–12
- L8 Nov 25A · Sevilla0–13
- D11 May 25A · Real Betis1–12
- L3 Sep 23H · Barcelona1–22
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna35 games · scored 43 · conceded 47
7
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
12
7
31-45
8
46-60
2
14
61-75
20
9
76-90
Espanyol36 games · scored 40 · conceded 53
5
5
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
12
31-45
12
10
46-60
5
9
61-75
11
13
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
9
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
