Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Osasuna. Osasuna had 4 days of rest, Getafe 8 and had to travel 329 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel329 kmRest days4 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Osasuna51%
Draw25%
Getafe23%
Osasuna44%
Draw26%
Getafe30%
Osasuna51%
Draw25%
Getafe23%
Osasuna44%
Draw27%
Getafe29%
Osasuna52%
Draw25%
Getafe24%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 15 km/h
- Humidity 62%
Referee · SpainJon Ander Gonzalez Esteban
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 10
Team strength
Osasuna
Getafe
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
27
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaGetafe
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
9.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.50
48%
On target shareContext
17%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
60%
Box shareContext
46%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
4.50
OffsidesContext
—
7.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.50
BlocksContext
2.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
67%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
429
PassesContext
336
361
Accurate passesContext
256
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.50
FoulsContext
13.50
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
70%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
7.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.57
39%
On target shareContext
23%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
64%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.30
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.89
BlocksContext
2.70
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
62%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
405
PassesContext
283
331
Accurate passesContext
200
82%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.60
FoulsContext
15.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
DW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 4 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 27 Aug | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 329 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,167 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
27Íñigo Arguibide
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
16Moi Gómez
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
22J. Mojica
24Z. Romero
2D. Dakonam
17Kiko Femenía
11Ramon Terrats
23O. Mangala
16Francho Serrano
21Andrés García
10M. Satriano
19E. Ünal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Getafe-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Getafe · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
2 Osasuna wins2 draws6 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.10 – 1.60
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets0% · 30%
- 23 May 2026Getafe1–0Osasuna
- 3 Oct 2025Osasuna2–1Getafe
- 16 Mar 2025Osasuna1–2Getafe
- 5 Oct 2024Getafe1–1Osasuna
- 21 Jan 2024Osasuna3–2Getafe
- 17 Sep 2023Getafe3–2Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Osasuna | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 10% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.00 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 6.00 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Osasuna | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.45 | 10.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 6.00 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban Spain · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.18
Red cards0.10league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 43%
Fouls24.2league 25.7
Penalties0.20league 0.32
Home wins30%league 50%
OsasunaNo previous matches with this referee.
GetafeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Getafe2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
