Osasuna
Attack+24%
Defense risk−8%
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Osasuna. Osasuna were without Aimar Oroz. Osasuna had 6.8 days of rest, Racing Santander 6.7 and had to travel 190 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel190 kmRest days6.8 · 6.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Osasuna46%
Draw25%
Racing Santander29%
Osasuna44%
Draw27%
Racing Santander29%
Osasuna47%
Draw24%
Racing Santander28%
Osasuna38%
Draw25%
Racing Santander36%
Osasuna47%
Draw23%
Racing Santander29%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 47%
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 51
Team strength
Osasuna
Racing Santander
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
50
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
22
16
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRacing Santander
Attack+18%
Defense risk−10%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
OsasunaRacing Santander
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.88
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.14
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
63%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.63
ShotsContext
11.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.88
42%
On target shareContext
42%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
62%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.75
Shots allowedContext
15.88
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.63
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
50%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
398
PassesContext
439
324
Accurate passesContext
362
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.50
Team ratingContext
6.66
13.88
FoulsContext
14.38
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.90
ShotsContext
13.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
41%
On target shareContext
41%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
63%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.78
12.30
Shots allowedContext
15.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
3.60
BlocksContext
3.70
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
50%
Save rateContext
61%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
389
PassesContext
443
315
Accurate passesContext
369
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.10
FoulsContext
14.00
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
LLLDL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,415 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 1 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
Racing Santander
LWLLD
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel190 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 4 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Racing Santander |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 6.7La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 190 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,415 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin
17A. Budimir
14Rubén García
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
24J. Belocian
5Pablo Ramón
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
8André Almeida
20Sergio Canales
21M. Zabiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −17.1% · Defence line −10.1% of weighted minutes
- MID Aimar Oroz Starter 6.70 Att −9.1% Def −5.7%
- DEF Jorge Herrando Rotation 6.63 Def −4.3%
- ATT Raúl Moro Rotation 6.58 Att −5.1%
- ATT Kike Barja Rotation 6.67 Att −2.7%
- MID R. Del Castillo Depth 5.94 Att −0.3% Def −0.2%
Racing Santander
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −1.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF S. Eriksson Rotation 6.55 Def −1.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Racing Santander+1.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Racing Santander · Away
0.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Alaves | L 2–5 A | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 A | L 0–5 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 2.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 4.50 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 88% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.50 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 88% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 12.43 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 5.50 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.66 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 4.40
Red cards0.18league 0.29
Cards 5+39%league 57%
Fouls26.1league 24.6
Penalties0.39league 0.34
Home wins49%league 42%
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L16 Mar 24H · Real Madrid2–43
- D10 Dec 23A · Cadiz1–12
- L28 Sep 23H · Atletico Madrid0–24
Racing Santander1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L23 Aug 26A · Getafe0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna8 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
76-90
Racing Santander8 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
7
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 18 · conceded 25
3
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
