Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Osasuna had 14 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 13.9 and had to travel 317 km.
Away travel317 kmRest days14 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Osasuna44%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano28%
Osasuna46%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano28%
Osasuna44%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano28%
Osasuna37%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Osasuna46%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano28%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 26
Team strength
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
50
AttackIn forecast
61
50
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.55
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.33
ShotsContext
10.67
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
25%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
58%
Box shareContext
63%
4%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
5.00
10.67
Shots allowedContext
9.67
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
80%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
410
PassesContext
429
332
Accurate passesContext
352
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.33
FoulsContext
15.33
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.40
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
29%
On target shareContext
38%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
65%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.60
11.90
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
77%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
404
PassesContext
451
334
Accurate passesContext
369
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.00
FoulsContext
11.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km696 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel317 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.9La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 696 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
3Juan Cruz
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
19V. Rosier
21Víctor Muñoz
9Raúl García
10Aimar Oroz
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
18Álvaro García
17Unai López
6P. Ciss
7Isi Palazón
4Pedro Díaz
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Rayo Vallecano · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Osasuna wins1 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.13
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2025Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 16 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano3–1Osasuna
- 20 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna
- 15 Dec 2023Osasuna1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna
- 4 Sep 2022Osasuna2–1Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 9.33 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.67 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 11.67 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.92league 3.79
Red cards0.27league 0.24
Cards 5+62%league 37%
Fouls24.2league 24.6
Penalties0.23league 0.32
Home wins46%league 42%
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Jan 24H · Almeria1–01
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Jan 24A · Atletico Madrid1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna3 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Rayo Vallecano3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
