Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Osasuna had 2.8 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 3.8 and had to travel 317 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel317 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Osasuna41%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano34%
Osasuna37%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Osasuna41%
Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Osasuna34%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Osasuna42%
Draw24%
Rayo Vallecano34%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
25°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 32%
Referee · SpainManuel Jesus Orellana Cid
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.54
- Matches 13
Team strength
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
50
AttackIn forecast
61
50
DefenceIn forecast
60
49
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaRayo Vallecano
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.33
ShotsContext
12.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
43%
On target shareContext
40%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
58%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.83
Shots allowedContext
17.67
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.17
BlocksContext
4.50
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
52%
Save rateContext
58%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
408
PassesContext
366
333
Accurate passesContext
293
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.83
FoulsContext
13.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
39%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
60%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.40
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.44
BlocksContext
4.80
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
57%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
389
PassesContext
386
316
Accurate passesContext
312
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.60
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.30
FoulsContext
14.20
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
WWLLL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km802 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 49 · 6 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Rayo Vallecano
DLWLW
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel317 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 61 · 7 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Sep | 3.8La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 802 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.2 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
13Aitor Fernández(G)
15Diego Rico
35U. Santos
24Catena
29Asier Osambela
27Íñigo Arguibide
11Kike Barja
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa
24F. Lejeune
15Mujaid Sadick
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
6P. Ciss
8Unai López
18Álvaro García
10Sergio Camello
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Alaves | L 2–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Osasuna wins1 draws3 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 24 Jan 2026Rayo Vallecano1–3Osasuna
- 14 Sep 2025Osasuna2–0Rayo Vallecano
- 19 Jan 2025Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 16 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano3–1Osasuna
- 20 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna
- 15 Dec 2023Osasuna1–0Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 4.17 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 12.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.66 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Osasuna | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.70 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.80 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.62league 4.23
Red cards0.62league 0.27
Cards 5+77%league 52%
Fouls29.2league 24.7
Penalties0.54league 0.35
Home wins62%league 45%
OsasunaNo previous matches with this referee.
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna6 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano6 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
