Osasuna vs Valencia – 24 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 16:00 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea

Osasuna 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Valencia 11th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Osasuna were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Osasuna had 4.8 days of rest, Valencia 7.8 and had to travel 386 km.

Away travel386 kmRest days4.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Osasuna44%

Draw28%

Valencia28%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.08

Osasuna46%

Draw26%

Valencia28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.15

Osasuna44%

Draw28%

Valencia28%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.07

Osasuna37%

Draw28%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.21

Osasuna46%

Draw26%

Valencia28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.16

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Iruñea)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 29

Team strength

Osasuna

Valencia

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

50 AttackIn forecast 39

50 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Osasuna

Valencia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.70

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 36%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

71% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.38 OffsidesContext 1.67

13.60 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.25 BlocksContext 2.80

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

80% Save rateContext 85%

44% PossessionIn forecast 53%

369 PassesContext 447

302 Accurate passesContext 370

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.98

13.30 FoulsContext 10.30

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel386 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Osasuna	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Aug	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	386 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	634 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

3Juan Cruz 24Catena 22F. Boyomo

7Moncayola 16Moi Gómez 6Lucas Torró 19V. Rosier

10Aimar Oroz 21Víctor Muñoz

17A. Budimir

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

14José Gayà 3Copete 5César Tárrega 20D. Foulquier

16Diego López 18Pepelu 8Javi Guerra 11Luis Rioja

19Dani Raba 7A. Danjuma

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Osasuna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Osasuna+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Valencia+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home No home games yet this season.

Valencia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Osasuna wins3 draws4 Valencia wins

Goals per game1.30 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

2 Mar 2025Osasuna3–3Valencia
24 Sep 2024Valencia0–0Osasuna
15 Apr 2024Osasuna0–1Valencia
27 Aug 2023Valencia1–2Osasuna
11 Mar 2023Valencia1–0Osasuna
7 Oct 2022Osasuna1–2Valencia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Osasuna	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.50
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Osasuna	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.50
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Osasuna	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	—	8.00
Corners conceded	—	7.00
Match total	—	15.00	8.83
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	—	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	3.00	3.92
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Osasuna	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	4.10
Corners conceded	4.56	5.70
Match total	10.45	9.80	8.83
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.70	4.20	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.62league 3.43

Red cards0.21league 0.36

Cards 5+55%league 36%

Fouls25.4league 22.7

Penalties0.41league 0.36

Home wins34%league 43%

Osasuna1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

W20 Apr 25A · Valladolid3–20

Valencia4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 4.5 Pens for · against2 · 1

L14 May 25A · Alaves0–12
D2 Mar 24H · Real Madrid2–22
W2 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–12
W16 Sep 23H · Atletico Madrid3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.