Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alaves. Oviedo had 2.9 days of rest, Alaves 3.9 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days2.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Oviedo33%
Draw30%
Alaves38%
Oviedo35%
Draw27%
Alaves38%
Oviedo32%
Draw29%
Alaves38%
Oviedo27%
Draw29%
Alaves45%
Oviedo33%
Draw28%
Alaves39%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 44
Team strength
Oviedo
Alaves
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
23
AttackIn forecast
48
39
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoAlaves
0.72
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
47%
Scored inContext
72%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
9.56
ShotsContext
11.89
3.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.09
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
61%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
14.42
Shots allowedContext
12.22
5.66
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.06
3.94
BlocksContext
4.00
4.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
74%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
381
PassesContext
404
312
Accurate passesContext
326
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.42
FoulsContext
14.58
11.58
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
12.10
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
38%
On target shareContext
31%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
59%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.44
BlocksContext
3.60
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
73%
Save rateContext
59%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
408
PassesContext
347
337
Accurate passesContext
275
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.20
FoulsContext
13.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Alaves
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel264 km1,073 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May | 3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 744 km | 1,073 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
1H. Moldovan(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
23N. Fonseca
5Alberto Reina
8Santi Cazorla
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
24Víctor Parada
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
21A. Rebbach
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
18Jon Guridi
7Ángel Pérez
11Toni Martínez
22I. Diabate
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alaves-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
1.06points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-7
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.94
Alaves · Away
0.72points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-11
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.72
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Getafe | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H | W 4–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Levante | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 28 of 105 · 0.80 per game | 39 of 105 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins1 draws0 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Jan 2026Alaves1–1Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.72 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.28 | 2.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 50% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 64% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 28% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Oviedo | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.74 | 5.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.62 | 5.03 | |
| Match total | 9.36 | 10.06 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 21/34 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 17/34 | 55% 18/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 11/34 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.47 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.64 | 4.69 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 17/36 | 69% 25/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 12/36 | 50% 18/36 | |
| Oviedo | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 10.10 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 4.29
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins41%league 48%
Oviedo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Feb 26A · Real Sociedad3–31
- L4 Oct 25H · Levante0–22
Alaves4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 May 25A · Athletic Club0–11
- D10 May 24H · Girona2–23
- W10 Mar 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–02
- L9 Dec 23H · Las Palmas0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo35 games · scored 26 · conceded 56
2
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
8
9
31-45
5
8
46-60
4
10
61-75
5
14
76-90
Alaves36 games · scored 42 · conceded 54
8
6
0-15
3
9
16-30
7
4
31-45
6
11
46-60
8
9
61-75
10
15
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
