Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 15 days of rest, Athletic Club 6.9 and had to travel 236 km.
Away travel236 kmRest days15 · 6.9Matches / 14d0 · 2
Oviedo30%
Draw28%
Athletic Club41%
Oviedo26%
Draw26%
Athletic Club48%
Oviedo29%
Draw29%
Athletic Club43%
Oviedo24%
Draw27%
Athletic Club48%
Oviedo31%
Draw27%
Athletic Club42%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 33
Team strength
Oviedo
Athletic Club
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
23
AttackIn forecast
51
39
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoAthletic Club
0.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
36%
Scored inContext
65%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.05
ShotsContext
13.96
2.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.43
31%
On target shareContext
32%
5.62
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
60%
Box shareContext
66%
6%
ConversionContext
8%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.08
14.91
Shots allowedContext
9.52
5.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.55
BlocksContext
2.37
4.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
372
PassesContext
415
306
Accurate passesContext
337
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.68
FoulsContext
12.22
11.27
Fouls sufferedContext
11.91
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
40%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
14.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
28%
On target shareContext
31%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
63%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.60
BlocksContext
1.78
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
72%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
364
PassesContext
393
297
Accurate passesContext
312
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.69
13.70
FoulsContext
14.60
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel236 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 236 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
6Kwasi Sibo
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
4Aitor Paredes
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
9I. Williams
8Oihan Sancet
22Nico Serrano
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Athletic Club-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-4
- Scored
- 0.36
- Conceded
- 1.00
Athletic Club · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-7
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–4 A |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 16 of 63 · 0.76 per game | 25 of 66 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 9 Nov 2025Athletic Club1–0Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.55 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.09 | 2.52 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 43% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 64% | 35% | |
| Games | 22 | 23 |
| Oviedo | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.90 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 5.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.68 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.41 | 9.48 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 13/22 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 11/22 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 7/22 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 4.39 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 10/22 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 6/22 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Oviedo | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.10 | 4.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.36league 4.15
Red cards0.36league 0.27
Cards 5+70%league 45%
Fouls24.0league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins48%league 47%
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Oct 25H · Espanyol0–22
Athletic Club2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Dec 25H · Espanyol1–24
- D28 Jan 24A · Cadiz0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo21 games · scored 12 · conceded 34
3
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
7
61-75
3
9
76-90
Athletic Club22 games · scored 25 · conceded 31
3
4
0-15
2
16-30
8
8
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
8
8
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
