Oviedo vs Barcelona – 25 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:30 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

Oviedo 18th · 3 pts · 5 played LLWLL

1–3Full time

Barcelona 2nd · 13 pts · 5 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 27). Barcelona usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Oviedo had 4.1 days of rest, Barcelona 4 and had to travel 693 km.

Away travel693 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Oviedo7%

Draw15%

Barcelona78%

Expected goals 0.66 – 2.56

Oviedo8%

Draw15%

Barcelona77%

Expected goals 0.70 – 2.54

Oviedo7%

Draw15%

Barcelona78%

Expected goals 0.66 – 2.53

Oviedo5%

Draw12%

Barcelona84%

Expected goals 0.59 – 2.87

Oviedo8%

Draw15%

Barcelona77%

Expected goals 0.70 – 2.57

Over 2.5 62% Both score 45% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Oviedo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 28

Team strength

Oviedo

Barcelona

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 91

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 93

23 AttackIn forecast 97

39 DefenceIn forecast 92

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Oviedo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Oviedo

Barcelona

0.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

0.68 xGVia Att/Def 2.20

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +1.00

20% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

7.00 ShotsContext 19.80

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

37% On target shareContext 35%

3.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.80

48% Box shareContext 60%

3% ConversionContext 16%

1.40 OffsidesContext 3.00

18.60 Shots allowedContext 5.80

6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

5.20 BlocksContext 2.00

5.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

82% Save rateContext 81%

40% PossessionIn forecast 70%

364 PassesContext 628

300 Accurate passesContext 561

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.22

11.80 FoulsContext 10.20

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

0.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.68 xGVia Att/Def 2.15

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.75

20% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

7.00 ShotsContext 18.90

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

37% On target shareContext 35%

3.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

48% Box shareContext 60%

3% ConversionContext 15%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.29

18.60 Shots allowedContext 7.20

6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

5.20 BlocksContext 1.86

5.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

82% Save rateContext 79%

40% PossessionIn forecast 70%

364 PassesContext 630

300 Accurate passesContext 563

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.22

11.80 FoulsContext 11.20

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 5 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Oviedo

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,190 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Barcelona

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel693 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Oviedo	Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep	4La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	693 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,190 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Oviedo Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

13Aarón Escandell(G)

3Abdel Rahim 16David Carmo 2E. Bailly 24Lucas Ahijado

7I. Chaira 5Alberto Reina 20L. Dendoncker 10H. Hassan

8Santi Cazorla

23S. Rondón

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Joan García(G)

18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 4R. Araujo 24Eric García

8Pedri 17Marc Casadó

14M. Rashford 20Dani Olmo 11Raphinha

7Ferran Torres

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Oviedo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Barcelona Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Oviedo-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Barcelona+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Oviedo · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Barcelona · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Oviedo	Barcelona
Getafe	L 0–2 A	W 3–0 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Oviedo	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.20	3.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.60
Match goals	1.80	3.80	3.21
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	20%	80%	62%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	0%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	80%	0%
Games	5	5

	Oviedo	Barcelona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.20	3.20
Conceded per game	1.60	0.60
Match goals	1.80	3.80	3.21
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	20%	80%	62%
Over 3.5	0%	40%
Both teams scored	0%	40%	45%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	80%	0%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Oviedo	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	1.80	4.50
Corners conceded	7.20	4.50
Match total	9.00	9.00	9.32
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.40	3.80
Match total	4.40	4.80	4.20
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	80% 4/5
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	60% 3/5

	Oviedo	Barcelona	League
Corners
Corners won	1.80	5.78
Corners conceded	7.20	3.78
Match total	9.00	9.56	9.32
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	60% 3/5	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.40	2.80
Match total	4.40	4.50	4.20
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 1/5	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.90

Red cards0.29league 0.27

Cards 5+43%league 41%

Fouls23.9league 24.7

Penalties0.21league 0.31

Home wins36%league 46%

Oviedo

No previous matches with this referee.

Barcelona5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W22 Apr 25H · Mallorca1–00
D11 Feb 24H · Granada CF3–31
D16 Dec 23A · Valencia1–12
W29 Sep 23H · Sevilla1–02
W3 Sep 23A · Osasuna2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.