Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Oviedo had 7 days of rest, Getafe 7.1 and had to travel 382 km.
Away travel382 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo38%
Draw31%
Getafe31%
Oviedo33%
Draw27%
Getafe40%
Oviedo38%
Draw31%
Getafe31%
Oviedo32%
Draw31%
Getafe38%
Oviedo39%
Draw29%
Getafe33%
Over 2.5 37%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
Oviedo
Getafe
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
23
AttackIn forecast
27
39
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoGetafe
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
56%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.65
ShotsContext
8.74
3.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.93
34%
On target shareContext
30%
6.13
Shots in the boxContext
5.41
60%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.39
OffsidesContext
2.77
14.15
Shots allowedContext
10.76
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.82
BlocksContext
2.55
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
73%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
384
PassesContext
276
315
Accurate passesContext
189
82%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.50
FoulsContext
13.88
11.62
Fouls sufferedContext
14.06
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
3.06
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
7.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
38%
On target shareContext
35%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
58%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.44
BlocksContext
2.80
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
68%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
413
PassesContext
228
341
Accurate passesContext
143
83%
Pass accuracyContext
63%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.20
FoulsContext
14.20
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,330 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel382 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 382 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,330 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
6Kwasi Sibo
10H. Hassan
9Federico Viñas
7I. Chaira
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
21Juan Iglesias
8M. Arambarri
2D. Dakonam
5Luis Milla
10M. Satriano
6Mario Martín
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Getafe+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
1.06points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-7
- Scored
- 0.53
- Conceded
- 1.00
Getafe · Away
1.35points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-8
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.24
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Levante | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 99 · 0.85 per game | 41 of 99 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Oviedo wins0 draws1 Getafe wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 13 Sep 2025Getafe2–0Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 1.88 | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 26% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 3% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 29% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 44% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Oviedo | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.60 | 2.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.80 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 19/32 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 16/32 | 32% 11/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 11/32 | 26% 9/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 3.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.32 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 5.61 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 16/34 | 79% 27/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 11/34 | 65% 22/34 | |
| Oviedo | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 9.90 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 4.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 6.90 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.58league 4.29
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+53%league 47%
Fouls23.4league 24.5
Penalties0.30league 0.37
Home wins44%league 48%
Oviedo2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Feb 26H · Atletico Madrid0–12
- L9 Nov 25A · Athletic Club0–11
Getafe2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.6.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Oct 23H · Real Betis1–15
- D13 Aug 23H · Barcelona0–08
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo33 games · scored 26 · conceded 54
2
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
8
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
4
10
61-75
5
13
76-90
Getafe34 games · scored 28 · conceded 36
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
7
61-75
4
10
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
46-60
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
