Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 28). Oviedo had 9 days of rest, Real Madrid 5 and had to travel 372 km.
Away travel372 kmRest days9 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Oviedo9%
Draw17%
Real Madrid73%
Oviedo10%
Draw17%
Real Madrid73%
Oviedo10%
Draw18%
Real Madrid73%
Oviedo6%
Draw14%
Real Madrid79%
Oviedo9%
Draw17%
Real Madrid74%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
Oviedo
Real Madrid
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
23
AttackIn forecast
89
39
DefenceIn forecast
85
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoReal Madrid
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
—
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
—
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
—
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
—
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Red cardsContext
—
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
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xGVia Att/Def
1.88
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
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Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
60%
—
ShotsContext
18.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
—
On target shareContext
36%
—
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
—
Box shareContext
61%
—
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.29
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Shots allowedContext
10.20
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
—
BlocksContext
3.43
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
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Save rateContext
76%
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PossessionIn forecast
61%
—
PassesContext
560
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Accurate passesContext
502
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Pass accuracyContext
90%
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Team ratingContext
7.29
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FoulsContext
9.40
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Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
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Yellow cardsContext
1.60
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Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,220 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Madrid
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel372 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Aug | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 372 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,220 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
15Oier Luengo
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
3Abdel Rahim
20L. Dendoncker
6Kwasi Sibo
22Nacho Vidal
7I. Chaira
23S. Rondón
21L. Ilić
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
24D. Huijsen
22A. Rüdiger
2Dani Carvajal
14A. Tchouaméni
8F. Valverde
11Rodrygo
15A. Güler
30Franco Mastantuono
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Real Madrid+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
No home games yet this season.
Real Madrid · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Oviedo | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 10.00 | — | |
| Match total | 11.00 | — | 8.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Oviedo | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 6.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 10.00 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.13 | 8.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.41
Red cards0.26league 0.35
Cards 5+30%league 29%
Fouls22.2league 23.2
Penalties0.26league 0.41
Home wins48%league 47%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Madrid2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Feb 24A · Getafe2–02
- D21 Oct 23A · Sevilla1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Real Madrid1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Oviedo1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
