Pafos
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Thu, Aug 13 · 18:00
Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos
Pafos
16th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
3–3Full time
Red Bull Salzburg
6th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,165 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Pafos—%
Draw—%
Red Bull Salzburg—%
Weather (Paphos)
No weather data yet
RefereeJoao Pinheiro
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
PafosRed Bull Salzburg
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
33
AttackIn forecast
36
38
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRed Bull Salzburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PafosRed Bull Salzburg
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
33%
Scored inContext
—
33%
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
21%
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
0%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
48%
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.38
ShotsContext
13.44
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
36%
On target shareContext
31%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
72%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.75
18.00
Shots allowedContext
9.78
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
5.25
BlocksContext
2.38
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
74%
Save rateContext
61%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
332
PassesContext
422
254
Accurate passesContext
340
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.75
FoulsContext
9.30
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pafos
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,330 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,165 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pafos |
Red Bull Salzburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 6 Aug | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027, 6 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,165 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,330 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pafos
Confirmed XI
99R. Majecki(G)
7Bruno Felipe
5David Goldar
4David Luiz
14N. Ioannou
26I. Šunjić
30V. Dragomir
6Guga
88Pêpê Rodrigues
20Biel
18Lele
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed XI
52C. Zawieschitzky(G)
18N. Veratschnig
44K. Boma
47V. Zabransky
31D. Schmid
32A. Barry
15B. Mazurek
8S. Kitano
11Y. Vertessen
23D. Redzic
9H. Tabaković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pafos
Absences are shown before kick-off
Red Bull Salzburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Pafos · Home
No home games yet this season.
Red Bull Salzburg · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pafos wins0 draws1 Red Bull Salzburg wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 6 Aug 2026Red Bull Salzburg1–0Pafos
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pafos | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Pafos | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.89 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 44% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 44% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 33% | |
| Games | 1 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pafos | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | — | |
| Match total | 15.00 | — | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Pafos | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 9.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pinheiro 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.82
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+0%league 43%
Fouls22.2league 29.6
Penalties0.33league 0.20
Home wins50%league 50%
PafosNo previous matches with this referee.
Red Bull SalzburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pafos2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Pafos9 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.