Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Angers were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 15). Paris FC had 7 days of rest, Angers 7.8 and had to travel 264 km.
Away travel264 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Angers35%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Angers35%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Angers35%
Paris FC31%
Draw27%
Angers42%
Paris FC38%
Draw27%
Angers36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 83
Team strength
Paris FC
Angers
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
46
AttackIn forecast
22
38
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCAngers
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
78%
Scored inContext
72%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
11.72
ShotsContext
8.67
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.19
63%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.07
10.89
Shots allowedContext
14.78
3.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
3.38
BlocksContext
3.11
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.94
65%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
496
PassesContext
394
429
Accurate passesContext
325
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.89
FoulsContext
11.11
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
10.89
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
8.80
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
24%
On target shareContext
47%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
4.44
61%
Box shareContext
50%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
3.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.40
Shots allowedContext
15.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.89
BlocksContext
3.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
466
PassesContext
429
398
Accurate passesContext
354
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.00
FoulsContext
11.30
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km685 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel264 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 264 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 685 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
5M. Mbow
14H. Traoré
7Alimami Gory
4V. Marchetti
17Adama Camara
10I. Kebbal
11J. Krasso
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
93H. Belkebla
14Y. Belkhdim
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
31H. Djibirin
11S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Angers+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.88
Angers · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Auxerre | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | L 0–5 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Marseille | L 2–5 A | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game | 19 of 51 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 17 Aug 2025Angers1–0Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.78 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.50 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 44% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Paris FC | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.94 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 8.88 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 8/18 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 2.61 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 9/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 0% 0/18 | |
| Paris FC | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.40 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.40 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.62
Red cards0.27league 0.32
Cards 5+42%league 35%
Fouls24.1league 24.2
Penalties0.27league 0.43
Home wins37%league 50%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Angers11 with this referee
Record1-4-6
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds1
- D29 Oct 25A · Marseille2–21
- W4 May 25A · Nantes1–03
- L30 Mar 25H · Rennes0–31
- L18 Aug 24H · Lens0–11
- L16 Apr 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC18 games · scored 24 · conceded 32
4
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
Angers18 games · scored 20 · conceded 25
1
1
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
8
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
