Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 6.2 days of rest, Lens 7.2 and had to travel 179 km.
Away travel179 kmRest days6.2 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC19%
Draw24%
Lens56%
Paris FC17%
Draw23%
Lens60%
Paris FC20%
Draw25%
Lens55%
Paris FC15%
Draw22%
Lens64%
Paris FC19%
Draw24%
Lens56%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 79
Team strength
Paris FC
Lens
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
46
AttackIn forecast
63
38
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCLens
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.76
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.81
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
71%
Scored inContext
81%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.19
ShotsContext
13.43
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
31%
On target shareContext
36%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
66%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.73
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.33
3.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.45
3.42
BlocksContext
3.80
2.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
65%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
499
PassesContext
445
432
Accurate passesContext
376
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.10
FoulsContext
13.67
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.86
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
50%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.60
ShotsContext
14.80
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
28%
On target shareContext
37%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
66%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.57
11.20
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.22
3.11
BlocksContext
2.44
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
69%
Save rateContext
79%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
481
PassesContext
477
412
Accurate passesContext
408
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.00
FoulsContext
15.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel179 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 179 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
6Otávio
15T. Kolodziejczak
42D. Coppola
19N. Sangui
18M. Munetsi
21M. Lopez
23R. Matondo
24L. Koleosho
10I. Kebbal
36C. Immobile
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Lens+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.70
Lens · Away
1.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| LE Havre | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | W 3–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 A | W 4–1 A |
| Lyon | D 3–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game | 46 of 60 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Lens wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Oct 2025Lens2–1Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 1.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 0.81 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.57 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 62% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 48% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 19% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Paris FC | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 9.70 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 10/21 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 9/21 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.61 | 4.43 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 7/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Paris FC | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.70 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.70 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 79 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.81league 3.65
Red cards0.25league 0.31
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls25.1league 24.1
Penalties0.39league 0.40
Home wins41%league 49%
Paris FC2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L13 Dec 25H · Toulouse0–33
- W14 Sep 25A · Stade Brestois 292–13
Lens10 with this referee
Record5-5-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W17 Jan 26H · Auxerre1–02
- W8 Nov 25A · Monaco4–12
- D28 Sep 25A · Rennes0–03
- D10 May 25A · Toulouse1–15
- W31 Jan 25A · Montpellier2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC21 games · scored 26 · conceded 34
4
3
0-15
4
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
8
76-90
Lens21 games · scored 37 · conceded 17
4
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
4
31-45
7
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
