Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 7 days of rest, Lille 7.8 and had to travel 205 km.
Away travel205 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Paris FC25%
Draw27%
Lille48%
Paris FC23%
Draw25%
Lille51%
Paris FC25%
Draw27%
Lille48%
Paris FC20%
Draw25%
Lille56%
Paris FC26%
Draw27%
Lille48%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 57
Team strength
Paris FC
Lille
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
46
AttackIn forecast
42
38
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCLille
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
73%
Scored inContext
70%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
11.27
ShotsContext
13.27
3.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.53
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.41
Shots in the boxContext
9.47
64%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.27
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.68
BlocksContext
2.57
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
71%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
467
PassesContext
486
398
Accurate passesContext
416
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.33
FoulsContext
10.70
10.73
Fouls sufferedContext
12.77
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
10.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
41%
On target shareContext
42%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
63%
Box shareContext
67%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.90
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.30
4.20
BlocksContext
3.22
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.78
80%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
397
PassesContext
492
324
Accurate passesContext
420
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.99
8.90
FoulsContext
9.80
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel205 km1,581 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 205 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 1,581 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
18M. Munetsi
93N. Ikoné
36C. Immobile
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
32A. Bouaddi
21B. André
27Félix Correia
10H. Haraldsson
17N. Mukau
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Lille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.79
Lille · Away
1.73points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-5
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 AW 6–1 H |
| Monaco | W 4–1 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 7–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Lyon | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 4–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Lens | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 4–3 A |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Points | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game | 51 of 87 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Lille wins
Goals per game2.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Lille4–2Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.53 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.87 | 2.77 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 30% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Paris FC | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.27 | 5.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 3.53 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.06 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 17/30 | 50% 15/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 16/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 14/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 9/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Paris FC | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 7.70 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 3.66
Red cards0.37league 0.27
Cards 5+49%league 36%
Fouls26.8league 23.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins44%league 47%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Lille8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W22 Feb 26A · Angers1–01
- L28 Sep 25H · Lyon0–14
- W30 Mar 25H · Lens1–01
- W24 Nov 24H · Rennes1–03
- L25 Feb 24A · Toulouse1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC30 games · scored 40 · conceded 46
6
3
0-15
8
8
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
4
61-75
11
13
76-90
Lille30 games · scored 49 · conceded 34
5
3
0-15
3
4
16-30
5
5
31-45
9
9
46-60
4
7
61-75
23
6
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
