Paris FC vs Lorient – 3 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 Fri, Oct 3 · 19:45 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FC 11th · 7 pts · 6 played LWWLD

2–0Full time

Lorient 13th · 7 pts · 6 played WLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 14). Paris FC usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris FC had 5.2 days of rest, Lorient 6.2 and had to travel 441 km.

Away travel441 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Paris FC35%

Draw27%

Lorient38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.38

Paris FC34%

Draw27%

Lorient39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Paris FC34%

Draw27%

Lorient38%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.36

Paris FC28%

Draw26%

Lorient45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.54

Paris FC34%

Draw27%

Lorient39%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.41

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Millot

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 77

Team strength

Paris FC

Lorient

14 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

46 AttackIn forecast 28

38 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FC

Lorient

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

83% Scored inContext 67%

0% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.50 ShotsContext 12.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

38% On target shareContext 35%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

64% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.60 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.50

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.80 BlocksContext 3.50

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

62% Save rateContext 52%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

513 PassesContext 411

449 Accurate passesContext 349

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.66

10.00 FoulsContext 12.67

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 15.33

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.50

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

2.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

83% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.50 ShotsContext 14.40

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

38% On target shareContext 33%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

64% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.50 Shots allowedContext 11.80

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.80 BlocksContext 3.00

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

62% Save rateContext 59%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

513 PassesContext 401

449 Accurate passesContext 333

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.00 FoulsContext 13.00

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.10

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 6 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,372 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel441 km642 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris FC	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,372 km	642 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15.8	15.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16Obed Nkambadio(G)

28T. De Smet 6Otávio 5M. Mbow 14H. Traoré

17Adama Camara 33P. Lees-Melou 21M. Lopez

27M. Simon 11J. Krasso 10I. Kebbal

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

25A. Faye 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

9M. Bamba

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris FC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris FC+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lorient-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 2.50

Lorient · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Paris FC	Lorient
Marseille	L 2–5 A	L 0–4 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Paris FC	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.50
Conceded per game	2.17	2.33
Match goals	3.83	3.83	2.68
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	83%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

	Paris FC	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.50
Conceded per game	2.17	2.33
Match goals	3.83	3.83	2.68
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	83%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	17%	33%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris FC	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	2.60
Corners conceded	4.50	4.80
Match total	10.00	7.40	9.68
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	20% 1/5
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	20% 1/5
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	1.17	3.67
Opponent cards	1.83	2.83
Match total	3.00	6.50	4.16
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	100% 6/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	100% 6/6

	Paris FC	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	4.44
Match total	10.00	8.44	9.68
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.17	3.20
Opponent cards	1.83	2.70
Match total	3.00	5.90	4.16
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Millot France · 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.78

Red cards0.29league 0.35

Cards 5+36%league 41%

Fouls25.4league 24.7

Penalties0.25league 0.52

Home wins40%league 59%

Paris FC

No previous matches with this referee.

Lorient5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W7 May 23H · Stade Brestois 292–13
L26 Feb 23H · Auxerre0–12
W27 Jan 23H · Rennes2–11
L24 Apr 22A · Rennes0–50
D20 Mar 22H · Strasbourg0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.