Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 6 days of rest, Lyon 8.1 and had to travel 395 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel395 kmRest days6 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC37%
Draw25%
Lyon38%
Paris FC30%
Draw26%
Lyon45%
Paris FC38%
Draw25%
Lyon37%
Paris FC30%
Draw24%
Lyon46%
Paris FC38%
Draw25%
Lyon37%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
23°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 37%
Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 109
Team strength
Paris FC
Lyon
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
46
AttackIn forecast
55
38
DefenceIn forecast
56
67
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCLyon
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
67%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
15.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
63%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.50
12.67
Shots allowedContext
12.33
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.33
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
82%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
552
PassesContext
485
482
Accurate passesContext
417
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.93
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.00
FoulsContext
11.00
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
15.70
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
38%
On target shareContext
36%
9.38
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
67%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.22
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
78%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
453
PassesContext
456
383
Accurate passesContext
391
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.20
FoulsContext
11.30
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
DWW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 8.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 4 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 395 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,321 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
31Samir Sophian Chergui
15L. Koleosho
33P. Lees-Melou
20M. Lopez
17Adama Camara
7P. Pagis
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
20F. Bacher
13Z. Athekame
23T. Morton
2M. Bidstrup
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
7E. Nuamah
17I. Openda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lyon+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Lyon · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Paris FC wins2 draws0 Lyon wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Mar 2026Lyon1–1Paris FC
- 29 Oct 2025Paris FC3–3Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Paris FC | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 11.66 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Paris FC | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 8.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 13.78 | 10.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.49league 2.97
Red cards0.27league 0.14
Cards 5+35%league 17%
Fouls23.9league 22.8
Penalties0.32league 0.41
Home wins40%league 28%
Paris FCNo previous matches with this referee.
Lyon17 with this referee
Record6-3-8
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against3 · 4
Reds2
- W19 Apr 26A · Paris Saint Germain2–12
- L1 Mar 26A · Marseille2–32
- W3 Jan 26A · Monaco3–13
- L18 Oct 25A · Nice2–32
- L2 Feb 25A · Marseille2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Lyon3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
