Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 5.1 days of rest, Monaco 4.9 and had to travel 689 km.
Away travel689 kmRest days5.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris FC22%
Draw25%
Monaco53%
Paris FC20%
Draw24%
Monaco56%
Paris FC21%
Draw25%
Monaco54%
Paris FC17%
Draw23%
Monaco61%
Paris FC22%
Draw25%
Monaco53%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 94
Team strength
Paris FC
Monaco
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
46
AttackIn forecast
45
38
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCMonaco
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
71%
Scored inContext
79%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.18
ShotsContext
11.71
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
32%
On target shareContext
35%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.32
64%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.95
11.86
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.62
BlocksContext
3.71
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
472
PassesContext
460
403
Accurate passesContext
386
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.61
FoulsContext
12.68
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.21
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
10.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
43%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
66%
Box shareContext
77%
9%
ConversionContext
20%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.00
BlocksContext
5.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
75%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
429
PassesContext
403
357
Accurate passesContext
331
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.99
10.10
FoulsContext
11.50
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km881 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel689 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 4.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 689 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 881 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
18M. Munetsi
93N. Ikoné
36C. Immobile
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
25W. Faes
6D. Zakaria
5J. Kehrer
24S. Adingra
23Aladji Bamba
15M. Camara
4J. Teze
31Ansu Fati
9F. Balogun
28M. Coulibaly
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Monaco-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.85
Monaco · Away
1.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-5
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H | W 3–2 H |
| Lyon | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 HW 5–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Lille | L 2–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 29 of 81 · 1.07 per game | 49 of 81 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Paris FC wins0 draws0 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 1 Nov 2025Monaco0–1Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.14 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 61% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 21% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Paris FC | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.36 | 4.19 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.89 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 4.22 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 13/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 9/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Paris FC | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.78 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.12league 3.69
Red cards0.22league 0.27
Cards 5+22%league 36%
Fouls20.6league 23.8
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins49%league 48%
Paris FC2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Mar 26A · Lyon1–10
- W1 Nov 25A · Monaco1–02
Monaco10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W13 Feb 26H · Nantes3–15
- L1 Nov 25H · Paris FC0–13
- D19 Apr 25H · Strasbourg0–02
- W28 Feb 25H · Reims3–00
- D18 Oct 24H · Lille0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC28 games · scored 33 · conceded 44
4
3
0-15
6
8
16-30
5
7
31-45
4
9
46-60
4
4
61-75
10
13
76-90
Monaco28 games · scored 49 · conceded 39
3
2
0-15
6
5
16-30
7
8
31-45
9
5
46-60
13
7
61-75
11
12
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
