Paris FC vs Nice – 30 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 14:00 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FC 14th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–0Full time

Nice 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris FC were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Paris FC. Paris FC had 7.8 days of rest, Nice 7.8 and had to travel 686 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel686 kmRest days7.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Paris FC49%

Draw25%

Nice26%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.06

Paris FC45%

Draw25%

Nice29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Paris FC49%

Draw25%

Nice26%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.05

Paris FC42%

Draw26%

Nice32%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.19

Paris FC49%

Draw25%

Nice26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.08

Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

24°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 18 km/h
Humidity 50%

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 92

Team strength

Paris FC

Nice

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

46 AttackIn forecast 26

38 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FC

Nice

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.70 ShotsContext 9.90

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

36% On target shareContext 29%

9.13 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

68% Box shareContext 62%

15% ConversionContext 7%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.80 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

3.00 BlocksContext 3.10

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

80% Save rateContext 65%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

419 PassesContext 400

349 Accurate passesContext 330

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.75

9.70 FoulsContext 11.80

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC D

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km284 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 1 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

D22 AugA · Estac Troyes0–01.6 xPts

Nice D

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel686 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 42 · 1 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

D22 AugH · Lorient0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris FC	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug	7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	686 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	284 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Trapp(G)

6Otávio 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

27M. Simon 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

23Y. Diouf(G)

35X. Mandza Tsiendi 55Y. Ndayishimiye 5M. Mohamed Ahmed

26M. Bard 28A. Witsel 39D. Coulibaly 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 7G. Hein

29N. Ngoumou

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris FC Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris FC+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nice-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home No home games yet this season.

Nice · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Paris FC wins1 draws0 Nice wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

1 Mar 2026Paris FC1–0Nice
28 Sep 2025Nice1–1Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris FC	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	0.00	0.00	2.65
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Paris FC	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.70
Conceded per game	0.90	1.20
Match goals	2.70	1.90	2.65
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris FC	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	9.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	8.00	12.00	10.31
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	0.00
Match total	3.00	1.00	3.15
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Paris FC	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.20
Corners conceded	5.40	5.30
Match total	9.90	10.50	10.31
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.30
Opponent cards	1.10	1.50
Match total	2.80	2.80	3.15
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.07

Red cards0.24league 0.13

Cards 5+36%league 20%

Fouls24.3league 23.3

Penalties0.28league 0.40

Home wins39%league 20%

Paris FC2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W19 Apr 26A · Metz3–12
D29 Oct 25H · Lyon3–36

Nice12 with this referee

Record7-3-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

D22 Feb 26H · Lorient3–33
W23 Aug 25H · Auxerre3–12
L10 May 25A · Rennes0–21
W20 Apr 25H · Angers2–11
D10 Nov 24H · Lille2–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.