Ligue 1 Gameweek 34 Sun, May 17 · 20:00 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Paris FC 11th · 41 pts · 33 played
2–1Full time
Paris Saint Germain 1st · 76 pts · 33 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 7 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Paris FC15%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain65%
Expected goals 0.98 – 2.25
Paris FC8%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain76%
Expected goals 0.71 – 2.52
Paris FC14%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain66%
Expected goals 0.93 – 2.20
Paris FC11%
Draw17%
Paris Saint Germain73%
Expected goals 0.88 – 2.52
Paris FC16%
Draw21%
Paris Saint Germain64%
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.14
Over 2.5 63% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

RefereeGuillaume Paradis
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.07
  • Matches 15

Team strength

Paris FCParis Saint Germain
25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
46 AttackIn forecast 91
38 DefenceIn forecast 83
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FCParis Saint Germain
1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.21
1.48 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.82
1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.89
1.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
73% Scored inContext 94%
24% Clean sheetsContext 55%
11.27 ShotsContext 17.36
3.73 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.48
33% On target shareContext 37%
7.48 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
64% Box shareContext 63%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.77
11.94 Shots allowedContext 8.15
3.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.31
3.55 BlocksContext 2.76
2.77 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.54
71% Save rateContext 72%
51% PossessionIn forecast 69%
462 PassesContext 712
393 Accurate passesContext 650
85% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.78 Team ratingContext 7.07
10.36 FoulsContext 8.94
10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 9.15
1.91 Yellow cardsContext 1.03
0.06 Red cardsContext 0.03
This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
80% Scored inContext 100%
30% Clean sheetsContext 60%
12.10 ShotsContext 16.50
4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
36% On target shareContext 36%
9.13 Shots in the boxContext 10.60
67% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.88
12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.20
3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67
3.10 BlocksContext 3.57
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
82% Save rateContext 76%
44% PossessionIn forecast 62%
381 PassesContext 609
310 Accurate passesContext 541
81% Pass accuracyContext 89%
6.87 Team ratingContext 7.10
9.10 FoulsContext 7.90
9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Paris Saint Germain
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris FC Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 10 May4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways616 km358 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one9798

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Confirmed XI
4-4-2
35K. Trapp(G)
6Otávio 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara
27M. Simon 33P. Lees-Melou 23R. Matondo 93N. Ikoné
9W. Geubbels 18M. Munetsi
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI
4-3-3
39M. Safonov(G)
54Dimitri Lucea 5Marquinhos 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
8Fabián Ruiz 4Beraldo 17Vitinha
7K. Kvaratskhelia 10M. Dembélé 29B. Barcola
+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris FC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Paris FC+0.5 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • Paris Saint Germain-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 1.38points per game · 16 home games
W-D-L
6-4-6
Scored
1.63
Conceded
1.63
Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.19points per game · 16 away games
W-D-L
11-2-3
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

OpponentParis FCParis Saint Germain
Rennes L 1–2 AL 0–1 H L 1–3 AW 5–0 H
Stade Brestois 29 W 4–0 HW 2–1 A W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
Lille L 0–1 HL 2–4 A W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Metz W 3–1 AW 3–2 H W 3–0 HW 3–2 A
Monaco W 4–1 HW 1–0 A L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Lorient D 1–1 AW 2–0 H D 2–2 HD 1–1 A
LE Havre W 3–2 HD 0–0 A W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Strasbourg D 0–0 AL 2–3 H W 2–1 AD 3–3 H
Lyon D 1–1 AD 3–3 H L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Nice W 1–0 HD 1–1 A W 4–0 AW 1–0 H
Toulouse D 1–1 AL 0–3 H W 3–1 HW 6–3 A
Lens L 0–5 HL 1–2 A W 2–0 AW 2–0 H
Auxerre D 0–0 AD 1–1 H W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Marseille D 2–2 HL 2–5 A W 5–0 HL 0–1 A
Angers D 0–0 HL 0–1 A W 3–0 AW 1–0 H
Nantes W 2–1 AL 1–2 H W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Points41 of 96 · 1.28 per game73 of 96 · 2.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Paris FC wins0 draws1 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 4 Jan 2026Paris Saint Germain2–1Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris FCParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.362.21
Conceded per game 1.480.82
Match goals 2.853.03 3.23
Over 1.5 73%76%
Over 2.5 55%61% 63%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 61%39% 56%
Clean sheets 24%55%
Failed to score 27%6%
Games3333
Paris FCParis Saint GermainForecast
Scored per game 1.802.10
Conceded per game 0.900.80
Match goals 2.702.90 3.23
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%70% 63%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 60%40% 56%
Clean sheets 30%60%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris FCParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won4.365.87
Corners conceded5.363.29
Match total9.729.169.34
Over 8.561% 20/3352% 16/31
Over 9.558% 19/3332% 10/31
Over 10.530% 10/3323% 7/31
Cards
Cards2.061.09
Opponent cards1.581.48
Match total3.642.573.91
Over 3.545% 15/3321% 7/33
Over 4.530% 10/339% 3/33
Paris FCParis Saint GermainLeague
Corners
Corners won5.006.50
Corners conceded6.003.90
Match total11.0010.409.34
Over 8.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 9.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.101.70
Opponent cards1.401.00
Match total3.502.703.91
Over 3.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillaume Paradis 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.66
Red cards0.13league 0.26
Cards 5+47%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 23.6
Penalties0.07league 0.37
Home wins33%league 46%
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • L7 Nov 25H · Rennes0–13
Paris Saint Germain

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Paris FC33 games · scored 45 · conceded 49
7 3 0-15
9 9 16-30
5 9 31-45
5 9 46-60
7 6 61-75
12 13 76-90
Paris Saint Germain33 games · scored 73 · conceded 27
11 3 0-15
7 6 16-30
15 4 31-45
10 5 46-60
12 3 61-75
18 6 76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
3 0-15
5 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
5 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Lille Auxerre 02 Lyon Lens 04 Marseille Rennes 31 Nantes Toulouse 00 Nice Metz 00 Strasbourg Monaco 54 Lorient LE Havre 02 Stade Brestois 29 Angers 11 Paris FC Paris Saint Germain 21