Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris FC
12th · 38 pts · 31 played
WDWWL
4–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 38 pts · 30 played
LLLDD
Our take
Paris FC were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 7 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 8.9 and had to travel 505 km.
Away travel505 kmRest days7 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC49%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2926%
Paris FC34%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2939%
Paris FC48%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2926%
Paris FC41%
Draw26%
Stade Brestois 2932%
Paris FC49%
Draw25%
Stade Brestois 2926%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 66
Team strength
Paris FCStade Brestois 29
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
46
AttackIn forecast
47
38
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCStade Brestois 29
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
71%
Scored inContext
70%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.13
ShotsContext
10.53
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.41
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
64%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.80
11.94
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.66
BlocksContext
3.97
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
71%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
465
PassesContext
363
396
Accurate passesContext
285
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.39
FoulsContext
12.90
10.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.40
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
39%
On target shareContext
31%
7.63
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
60%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
18%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.90
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.10
BlocksContext
5.00
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
79%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
394
PassesContext
338
321
Accurate passesContext
260
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
8.90
FoulsContext
11.60
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km556 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel505 km510 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 8.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 505 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 556 km | 510 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
14H. Traoré
23R. Matondo
18M. Munetsi
27M. Simon
10I. Kebbal
93N. Ikoné
9W. Geubbels
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
12T. Zogbé
71Raphael Marc Le Guen
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
13J. Chotard
14R. Labeau-Lascary
8H. Magnetti
24L. Tousart
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Stade Brestois 29-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
1.27points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-6
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.73
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | L 0–1 HL 2–4 A | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Monaco | W 4–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lyon | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Toulouse | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Lens | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Angers | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Rennes | L 0–1 H | L 3–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 90 · 1.17 per game | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Paris FC wins0 draws0 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 291–2Paris FC
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.93 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 47% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 30% | |
| Games | 31 | 30 |
| Paris FC | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.35 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.35 | 5.27 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.58 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 18/31 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 17/31 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 10/31 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 15/31 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 10/31 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Paris FC | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.60 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 10.01 | 9.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.68
Red cards0.29league 0.27
Cards 5+32%league 36%
Fouls26.3league 23.6
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins36%league 46%
Paris FC1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L23 Aug 25A · Marseille2–50
Stade Brestois 297 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 3
Reds1
- L4 Apr 26H · Rennes3–42
- D19 Oct 25A · Lorient3–32
- W3 Dec 23H · Clermont Foot3–01
- L11 Mar 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- W29 Jan 23H · Angers4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC31 games · scored 40 · conceded 47
6
3
0-15
8
9
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
4
61-75
11
13
76-90
Stade Brestois 2930 games · scored 41 · conceded 47
8
6
0-15
6
10
16-30
7
7
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
10
61-75
8
9
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
