Paris FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris FC were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 6.9 days of rest, Strasbourg 7 and had to travel 397 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel397 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Paris FC42%
Draw24%
Strasbourg34%
Paris FC34%
Draw26%
Strasbourg40%
Paris FC43%
Draw24%
Strasbourg33%
Paris FC35%
Draw24%
Strasbourg41%
Paris FC42%
Draw24%
Strasbourg34%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
25°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 35%
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 94
Team strength
Paris FC
Strasbourg
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
46
AttackIn forecast
40
38
DefenceIn forecast
37
63
Form indexContext
60
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris FCStrasbourg
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
0.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.38
-0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+1.33
50%
Scored inContext
75%
75%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.25
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
33%
On target shareContext
43%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
60%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.50
Shots allowedContext
17.25
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.25
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
82%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
563
PassesContext
433
496
Accurate passesContext
373
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.00
FoulsContext
11.50
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.60
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
38%
On target shareContext
41%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.20
Shots allowedContext
18.20
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.10
BlocksContext
5.10
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
79%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
469
PassesContext
445
398
Accurate passesContext
381
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.50
FoulsContext
10.30
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris FC
DWWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 8 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Strasbourg
LWWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel397 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris FC |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 397 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,321 km | 544 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré
42D. Coppola
5M. Mbow
17Adama Camara
20M. Lopez
33P. Lees-Melou
15L. Koleosho
7P. Pagis
10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
6I. Doukouré
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
23Diogo Sousa
29S. El Mourabet
11A. Nanasi
10G. Reyna
80Gessime Yassine
30J. Ortega
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris FC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris FC-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Strasbourg+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris FC · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Strasbourg · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Paris FC | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | W 3–2 A | L 0–4 A |
| Estac Troyes | D 0–0 A | W 6–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Paris FC wins1 draws1 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 15 Mar 2026Strasbourg0–0Paris FC
- 21 Sep 2025Paris FC2–3Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.25 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.20 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Paris FC | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.01 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.90 | 2.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 2.84
Red cards0.23league 0.11
Cards 5+36%league 16%
Fouls24.2league 23.3
Penalties0.29league 0.32
Home wins40%league 30%
Paris FC3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Aug 26H · Nice3–00
- W19 Apr 26A · Metz3–12
- D29 Oct 25H · Lyon3–36
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record4-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W9 Feb 25H · Montpellier2–01
- L19 Oct 24A · Paris Saint Germain2–42
- D5 Nov 23H · Clermont Foot0–02
- L3 Sep 23A · Nice0–21
- W13 May 23H · Nice2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris FC4 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Strasbourg4 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
