Paris Saint Germain vs LE Havre – 22 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 22 · 20:05 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 3rd · 27 pts · 12 played DWDWW

3–0Full time

LE Havre 12th · 14 pts · 12 played LWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 23). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (70% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 13 days of rest, LE Havre 14.1 and had to travel 178 km.

Away travel178 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Paris Saint Germain89%

Draw8%

LE Havre3%

Expected goals 3.45 – 0.58

Paris Saint Germain88%

Draw9%

LE Havre3%

Expected goals 3.24 – 0.55

Paris Saint Germain89%

Draw8%

LE Havre3%

Expected goals 3.47 – 0.57

Paris Saint Germain85%

Draw11%

LE Havre5%

Expected goals 3.08 – 0.65

Paris Saint Germain87%

Draw9%

LE Havre3%

Expected goals 3.22 – 0.56

Over 2.5 77% Both score 43% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 48

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

LE Havre

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

91 AttackIn forecast 20

83 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

LE Havre

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.08

0.92 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

92% Scored inContext 75%

50% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.08 ShotsContext 11.17

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

37% On target shareContext 31%

8.42 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

53% Box shareContext 57%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.42 Shots allowedContext 9.33

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

3.00 BlocksContext 3.10

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.18

68% Save rateContext 60%

72% PossessionIn forecast 47%

764 PassesContext 392

705 Accurate passesContext 324

92% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.77

9.92 FoulsContext 13.92

9.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.08

1.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.92

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.69 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.71 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

100% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.40 ShotsContext 11.00

6.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

39% On target shareContext 29%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

56% Box shareContext 58%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.13

8.60 Shots allowedContext 9.30

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.88 BlocksContext 3.13

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

67% Save rateContext 65%

70% PossessionIn forecast 49%

704 PassesContext 395

648 Accurate passesContext 329

92% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.90 FoulsContext 13.60

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km791 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

LE Havre

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel178 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov	14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	178 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	791 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30L. Chevalier(G)

25Nuno Mendes 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery

87João Neves 17Vitinha 24S. Mayulu

49I. Mbaye 9Gonçalo Ramos 19K. Lee

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-1-3-2

99M. Diaw(G)

18Y. Zouaoui 4G. Lloris 93A. Sangante 7L. Nego

15A. Seko

26S. Ebonog 14R. Ndiaye 94A. Touré

8Y. Kechta 45I. Soumaré

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain-0.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
LE Havre+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 0.60

LE Havre · Away 0.83points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-3
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre
Nice	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Lorient	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Strasbourg	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 A
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Marseille	L 0–1 A	L 2–6 A
Lens	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Toulouse	W 6–3 A	D 0–0 A
Nantes	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Points	20 of 27 · 2.22 per game	12 of 27 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws0 LE Havre wins

Goals per game2.75 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

19 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain2–1LE Havre
16 Aug 2024LE Havre1–4Paris Saint Germain
27 Apr 2024Paris Saint Germain3–3LE Havre
3 Dec 2023LE Havre0–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.08
Conceded per game	0.92	1.42
Match goals	2.92	2.50	4.03
Over 1.5	67%	58%
Over 2.5	33%	42%	77%
Over 3.5	25%	33%
Both teams scored	42%	58%	43%
Clean sheets	50%	33%
Failed to score	8%	25%
Games	12	12

	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	3.30	2.30	4.03
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	77%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	43%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.10
Corners conceded	3.20	4.40
Match total	8.60	8.50	9.41
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.17	2.00
Opponent cards	1.67	2.33
Match total	2.84	4.33	4.22
Over 3.5	25% 3/12	83% 10/12
Over 4.5	8% 1/12	25% 3/12

	Paris Saint Germain	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.33
Corners conceded	2.78	4.33
Match total	8.78	8.66	9.41
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.30	2.70
Match total	4.00	4.70	4.22
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 3.85

Red cards0.38league 0.33

Cards 5+52%league 39%

Fouls27.0league 24.3

Penalties0.35league 0.49

Home wins44%league 51%

Paris Saint Germain3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W10 May 25A · Montpellier4–11
W19 Apr 25H · LE Havre2–10
W8 Mar 25A · Rennes4–13

LE Havre4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–20
D19 Jan 25A · Reims1–12
L31 Mar 24H · Montpellier0–22
W24 Sep 23H · Clermont Foot2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.