Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient – 2 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 16:00 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 69 pts · 30 played WWLWW

2–2Full time

Lorient 9th · 41 pts · 31 played LDLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lorient. Paris Saint Germain had 6.9 days of rest, Lorient 6.1 and had to travel 441 km.

Away travel441 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Paris Saint Germain84%

Draw11%

Lorient5%

Expected goals 3.15 – 0.72

Paris Saint Germain84%

Draw12%

Lorient5%

Expected goals 2.91 – 0.61

Paris Saint Germain84%

Draw11%

Lorient5%

Expected goals 3.10 – 0.71

Paris Saint Germain78%

Draw14%

Lorient8%

Expected goals 2.81 – 0.81

Paris Saint Germain82%

Draw12%

Lorient6%

Expected goals 2.98 – 0.71

Over 2.5 74% Both score 49% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 83

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Lorient

90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

91 AttackIn forecast 28

83 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Lorient

2.27 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.35

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.52

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

93% Scored inContext 71%

53% Clean sheetsContext 19%

17.20 ShotsContext 11.03

6.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.74

39% On target shareContext 34%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.83

63% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.79 OffsidesContext 2.13

7.90 Shots allowedContext 10.55

3.12 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.87

2.71 BlocksContext 2.79

2.39 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.68

71% Save rateContext 65%

69% PossessionIn forecast 45%

718 PassesContext 418

657 Accurate passesContext 355

92% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.82

9.30 FoulsContext 9.52

9.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.19

1.07 Yellow cardsContext 1.61

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 31 games

3.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+1.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

100% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.30 ShotsContext 10.60

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

47% On target shareContext 38%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

70% Box shareContext 58%

22% ConversionContext 14%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.88

9.00 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.25 BlocksContext 2.67

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

80% Save rateContext 68%

64% PossessionIn forecast 48%

647 PassesContext 445

582 Accurate passesContext 382

90% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.09 Team ratingContext 6.89

8.40 FoulsContext 8.50

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km529 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel441 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Apr	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 26 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	529 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

89R. Bellucci(G)

21L. Hernández 51W. Pacho 4Beraldo 24S. Mayulu

27Dro Fernández 8Fabián Ruiz 19K. Lee

29B. Barcola 14D. Doué 49I. Mbaye

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

25A. Faye 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei

43Arsène Kouassi 8Noah Cadiou 6L. Abergel 77P. Katseris

10P. Pagis 62A. Avom

12B. Dieng

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Lorient+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 2.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 12-1-2
Scored: 2.53
Conceded: 0.67

Lorient · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-8
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient
Angers	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HL 0–2 A
Nantes	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Lyon	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H
Toulouse	W 3–1 HW 6–3 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Nice	W 4–0 AW 1–0 H	D 3–3 AW 3–1 H
Monaco	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Metz	W 3–0 HW 3–2 A	D 1–1 H
Rennes	L 1–3 AW 5–0 H	W 2–0 AW 4–0 H
Marseille	W 5–0 HL 0–1 A	W 2–0 HL 0–4 A
Strasbourg	W 2–1 AD 3–3 H	L 2–3 HD 0–0 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Lille	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AL 1–7 H
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H
Lens	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A
Points	68 of 87 · 2.34 per game	40 of 90 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Paris Saint Germain wins3 draws1 Lorient wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.14 Over 2.557% Both scored86% Clean sheets14% · 14%

29 Oct 2025Lorient1–1Paris Saint Germain
24 Apr 2024Lorient1–4Paris Saint Germain
12 Aug 2023Paris Saint Germain0–0Lorient
30 Apr 2023Paris Saint Germain1–3Lorient
6 Nov 2022Lorient1–2Paris Saint Germain
3 Apr 2022Paris Saint Germain5–1Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	2.27	1.35
Conceded per game	0.83	1.52
Match goals	3.10	2.87	3.87
Over 1.5	77%	87%
Over 2.5	63%	42%	74%
Over 3.5	33%	32%
Both teams scored	40%	55%	49%
Clean sheets	53%	19%
Failed to score	7%	29%
Games	30	31

	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.50
Conceded per game	0.90	1.40
Match goals	3.40	2.90	3.87
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	40%	74%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	49%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	3.48
Corners conceded	3.29	4.90
Match total	8.86	8.38	9.19
Over 8.5	46% 13/28	41% 12/29
Over 9.5	29% 8/28	34% 10/29
Over 10.5	18% 5/28	24% 7/29
Cards
Cards	1.13	1.65
Opponent cards	1.60	2.35
Match total	2.73	4.00	3.96
Over 3.5	23% 7/30	58% 18/31
Over 4.5	10% 3/30	42% 13/31

	Paris Saint Germain	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.70
Corners conceded	4.40	5.00
Match total	8.90	8.70	9.19
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.30
Opponent cards	0.90	2.70
Match total	2.30	4.00	3.96
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 83 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.81league 3.69

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+37%league 36%

Fouls25.0league 23.7

Penalties0.39league 0.37

Home wins39%league 47%

Paris Saint Germain6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

D25 Feb 24H · Rennes1–15
W3 Dec 23A · LE Havre2–02
W21 Oct 23H · Strasbourg3–02
D12 Aug 23H · Lorient0–00
W4 Feb 23H · Toulouse2–12

Lorient18 with this referee

Record6-5-7 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds3

W31 Jan 26H · Nantes2–14
L12 May 24A · Marseille1–34
D17 Mar 24A · Monaco2–22
L17 Dec 23H · Strasbourg1–23
D4 Nov 23H · Lens0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.