Paris Saint Germain vs Metz – 21 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 21 · 20:05 Parc des Princes, Paris

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 51 pts · 22 played WWWWL

3–0Full time

Metz 18th · 13 pts · 22 played LLLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain had 8.1 days of rest, Metz 6.2 and had to travel 278 km.

Away travel278 kmRest days8.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Paris Saint Germain94%

Draw4%

Metz1%

Expected goals 4.31 – 0.54

Paris Saint Germain91%

Draw7%

Metz2%

Expected goals 3.52 – 0.51

Paris Saint Germain94%

Draw4%

Metz1%

Expected goals 4.32 – 0.55

Paris Saint Germain91%

Draw6%

Metz2%

Expected goals 3.85 – 0.60

Paris Saint Germain93%

Draw5%

Metz2%

Expected goals 4.03 – 0.52

Over 2.5 86% Both score 41% Likeliest score 4–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 25

Team strength

Paris Saint Germain

Metz

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

91 AttackIn forecast 11

83 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint Germain

Metz

2.23 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.23

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

91% Scored inContext 64%

50% Clean sheetsContext 18%

17.05 ShotsContext 8.73

6.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.32

38% On target shareContext 33%

10.55 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

61% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

8.45 Shots allowedContext 14.36

3.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.64

2.83 BlocksContext 3.24

2.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.81

70% Save rateContext 65%

69% PossessionIn forecast 49%

712 PassesContext 446

650 Accurate passesContext 384

91% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.82 FoulsContext 10.64

8.77 Fouls sufferedContext 11.05

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

2.00 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

100% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

19.50 ShotsContext 8.90

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

34% On target shareContext 32%

12.70 Shots in the boxContext 4.70

66% Box shareContext 55%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

8.50 Shots allowedContext 14.30

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

64% Save rateContext 64%

68% PossessionIn forecast 50%

678 PassesContext 457

617 Accurate passesContext 394

91% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.67

8.70 FoulsContext 10.10

8.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

0.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km616 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Metz

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel278 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris Saint Germain	Metz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Feb	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	278 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	616 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

21L. Hernández 4Beraldo 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

27Dro Fernández 33W. Zaïre-Emery 19K. Lee

29B. Barcola 9Gonçalo Ramos 14D. Doué

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Metz Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Jonathan Fischer(G)

97F. Ballo-Touré 15T. Yegbe 38S. Sané 39K. Kouao

5J. Gbamin

7G. Tsitaishvili 8B. Traoré 12Alpha Touré 19L. Michal

30M. Diallo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Metz Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Paris Saint Germain+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Metz+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 2.80points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 9-1-0
Scored: 2.70
Conceded: 0.40

Metz · Away 0.36points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-9
Scored: 1.09
Conceded: 2.82

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Paris Saint Germain	Metz
Rennes	L 1–3 AW 5–0 H	L 0–1 H
Marseille	W 5–0 HL 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Strasbourg	W 2–1 AD 3–3 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Auxerre	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A
Lille	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HL 1–6 A
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Monaco	L 0–1 A	L 2–5 A
LE Havre	W 3–0 H	D 0–0 H
Lyon	W 3–2 A	L 2–5 HL 0–3 A
Nice	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Lorient	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 A	L 2–3 A
Lens	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Toulouse	W 6–3 A	L 0–4 A
Angers	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Nantes	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
Points	48 of 63 · 2.29 per game	13 of 63 · 0.62 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

5 Paris Saint Germain wins0 draws0 Metz wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.80 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

13 Dec 2025Metz2–3Paris Saint Germain
19 May 2024Metz0–2Paris Saint Germain
20 Dec 2023Paris Saint Germain3–1Metz
21 May 2022Paris Saint Germain5–0Metz
22 Sep 2021Metz1–2Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris Saint Germain	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	2.23	1.00
Conceded per game	0.86	2.23
Match goals	3.09	3.23	4.85
Over 1.5	73%	77%
Over 2.5	55%	59%	86%
Over 3.5	32%	41%
Both teams scored	41%	55%	41%
Clean sheets	50%	18%
Failed to score	9%	36%
Games	22	22

	Paris Saint Germain	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.80	2.20
Match goals	3.30	3.20	4.85
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	86%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	41%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris Saint Germain	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	3.86
Corners conceded	3.35	4.95
Match total	8.75	8.81	9.22
Over 8.5	50% 10/20	33% 7/21
Over 9.5	25% 5/20	14% 3/21
Over 10.5	15% 3/20	14% 3/21
Cards
Cards	1.05	1.68
Opponent cards	1.59	1.45
Match total	2.64	3.13	3.97
Over 3.5	23% 5/22	45% 10/22
Over 4.5	9% 2/22	27% 6/22

	Paris Saint Germain	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.56
Corners conceded	2.40	4.22
Match total	8.40	7.78	9.22
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	0.70	1.80
Opponent cards	1.20	1.30
Match total	1.90	3.10	3.97
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 25 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 3.65

Red cards0.28league 0.30

Cards 5+36%league 36%

Fouls27.6league 24.0

Penalties0.44league 0.40

Home wins56%league 49%

Paris Saint Germain1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W17 May 25H · Auxerre3–10

Metz1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W29 Oct 25H · Lens2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.