Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 45). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 2.9 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 686 km.
Away travel686 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Paris Saint Germain80%
Draw13%
Nice6%
Paris Saint Germain78%
Draw15%
Nice7%
Paris Saint Germain80%
Draw14%
Nice7%
Paris Saint Germain74%
Draw16%
Nice9%
Paris Saint Germain78%
Draw15%
Nice7%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 108
Team strength
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
91
AttackIn forecast
26
83
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainNice
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.00
ShotsContext
10.90
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
40%
On target shareContext
38%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
52%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.13
8.70
Shots allowedContext
15.60
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
5.20
2.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
65%
Save rateContext
73%
72%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
766
PassesContext
398
708
Accurate passesContext
331
92%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.90
FoulsContext
12.80
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.30
ShotsContext
10.10
7.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
45%
On target shareContext
38%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
54%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.90
Shots allowedContext
17.50
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.75
BlocksContext
6.60
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
69%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
698
PassesContext
369
642
Accurate passesContext
299
92%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.40
FoulsContext
12.20
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,891 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Nice
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel686 km4,312 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 2.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 686 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,891 km | 4,312 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
25Nuno Mendes
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
17Vitinha
87João Neves
29B. Barcola
24S. Mayulu
7K. Kvaratskhelia
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
2A. Abdi
26M. Bard
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
8M. Sanson
6H. Boudaoui
20T. Louchet
47Tiago Gouveia
21I. Jansson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Nice-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Nice · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | L 1–4 A |
| Lille | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 25 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain1–3Nice
- 6 Oct 2024Nice1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 15 May 2024Nice1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain2–3Nice
- 8 Apr 2023Nice0–2Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Oct 2022Paris Saint Germain2–1Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.13 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 11.11 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 4.30 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 10.30 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.20 | 4.22 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.88
Red cards0.26league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 39%
Fouls22.4league 24.6
Penalties0.31league 0.51
Home wins51%league 52%
Paris Saint Germain13 with this referee
Record10-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W1 Mar 25H · Lille4–10
- W18 Dec 24A · Monaco4–20
- W27 Oct 24A · Marseille3–00
- W21 Apr 24H · Lyon4–10
- W10 Feb 24H · Lille3–12
Nice9 with this referee
Record2-4-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L17 Jan 25A · Lille1–23
- W7 Dec 24H · LE Havre2–13
- D28 Sep 24A · Lens0–02
- W26 Nov 23H · Toulouse1–00
- D15 Jan 23A · Reims0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
