Parma vs Cagliari – 22 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 22 · 19:45 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma

0–1Full time

Cagliari

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Parma were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Cagliari. Parma had 90.2 days of rest, Cagliari 90 and had to travel 627 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel627 kmRest days90.2 · 90Matches / 14d0 · 0

Parma42%

Draw26%

Cagliari31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.17

Parma47%

Draw25%

Cagliari28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Parma42%

Draw26%

Cagliari31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.16

Parma35%

Draw27%

Cagliari38%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.31

Parma43%

Draw26%

Cagliari31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.21

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

28°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 48%

Warm

RefereeDaniele Perenzoni

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 6

Team strength

Parma

Cagliari

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

20 AttackIn forecast 31

33 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Parma

Cagliari

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.10 ShotsContext 12.50

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

30% On target shareContext 29%

5.22 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

58% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.40 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.30 BlocksContext 3.00

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

69% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 46%

343 PassesContext 385

283 Accurate passesContext 318

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.20 FoulsContext 9.50

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma

Rest90.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cagliari

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel627 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.2Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May	90Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	627 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

4-3-3

40E. Corvi(G)

14E. Valeri 3A. Ndiaye 37Mariano Troilo 15E. Delprato

32C. Ordoñez 47A. Konate 10Adrián Bernabé

76S. Lontani 19E. Touré 16L. Keita

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 14A. Deiola 2Zé Pedro

6H. Winks 4Alessandro Romano

10J. Fazzini 70D. Maldini 8M. Adopo

31Paul Mendy

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Cagliari Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Parma-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Cagliari+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home No home games yet this season.

Cagliari · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Parma wins1 draws3 Cagliari wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

27 Feb 2026Parma1–1Cagliari
13 Sep 2025Cagliari2–0Parma
9 Feb 2025Cagliari2–1Parma
30 Sep 2024Parma2–3Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.57
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Parma	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.20	2.50	2.57
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	20%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Parma	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	4.50
Corners conceded	5.90	3.90
Match total	9.50	8.40	8.50
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.40
Opponent cards	1.40	1.30
Match total	3.00	2.70	3.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Perenzoni 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.50

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+33%league 0%

Fouls25.7league 21.5

Penalties0.17league 0.00

Home wins83%league 50%

Parma

No previous matches with this referee.

Cagliari

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.