Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Juventus were slight favourites.
Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Parma had 7.2 days of rest, Juventus 7.1 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Parma19%
Draw25%
Juventus56%
Parma21%
Draw24%
Juventus55%
Parma19%
Draw26%
Juventus55%
Parma14%
Draw23%
Juventus63%
Parma19%
Draw24%
Juventus57%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 43
Team strength
Parma
Juventus
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
20
AttackIn forecast
57
33
DefenceIn forecast
76
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisJuventus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaJuventus
0.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.77
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
45%
Scored inContext
77%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
10.91
ShotsContext
15.55
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.73
25%
On target shareContext
37%
6.62
Shots in the boxContext
9.64
58%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.53
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.32
Shots allowedContext
9.64
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.71
4.38
BlocksContext
2.95
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.05
73%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
345
PassesContext
518
272
Accurate passesContext
450
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.50
FoulsContext
13.05
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.32
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
40%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
11.90
ShotsContext
14.30
2.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.44
19%
On target shareContext
41%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
56%
Box shareContext
64%
4%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.50
Shots allowedContext
9.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
4.80
BlocksContext
3.75
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
75%
Save rateContext
91%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
369
PassesContext
516
299
Accurate passesContext
446
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.80
FoulsContext
13.40
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Juventus
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel210 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Juventus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
39A. Circati
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
41H. Nicolussi
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
21G. Oristanio
9Mateo Pellegrino
Juventus
Confirmed XI
16M. Di Gregorio(G)
27A. Cambiaso
6L. Kelly
3Bremer
15P. Kalulu
19K. Thuram
5M. Locatelli
10K. Yıldız
22W. McKennie
7Francisco Conceição
30J. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Juventus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Juventus+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.18
Juventus · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | W 4–3 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | W 5–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game | 39 of 63 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Parma wins1 draws1 Juventus wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 24 Aug 2025Juventus2–0Parma
- 23 Apr 2025Parma1–0Juventus
- 30 Oct 2024Juventus2–2Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.64 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 0.77 | |
| Match goals | 1.82 | 2.36 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 41% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 45% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Parma | Juventus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.60 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 5.45 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.35 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 9/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 8/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 7/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 3.63 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Parma | Juventus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.55 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.79
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+56%league 36%
Fouls26.1league 25.6
Penalties0.30league 0.31
Home wins47%league 38%
Parma4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L13 Sep 25A · Cagliari0–21
- D8 Mar 25H · Torino2–24
- D19 Jan 25H · Venezia1–12
- L30 Sep 24H · Cagliari2–33
Juventus3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W3 May 23H · Lecce2–12
- W6 Mar 22H · Spezia1–03
- W30 Nov 21A · Salernitana2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma22 games · scored 14 · conceded 26
1
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Juventus22 games · scored 35 · conceded 17
5
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
9
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Juventus10 games · scored 19 · conceded 3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
7
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
