Parma vs Monza – 6 Sep 2026

Serie A Gameweek 3 Sun, Sep 6 · 14:00 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma 16th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

1–1Full time

Monza 17th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Parma were slight favourites.

Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Monza. Parma had 7.8 days of rest, Monza 7.9 and had to travel 120 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel120 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Parma50%

Draw26%

Monza24%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.97

Parma58%

Draw22%

Monza19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Parma50%

Draw26%

Monza24%

Expected goals 1.53 – 0.98

Parma43%

Draw27%

Monza30%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.08

Parma51%

Draw25%

Monza24%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.02

Over 2.5 46% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

33°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 42%

Heat stress

Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 51

Team strength

Parma

Monza

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

20 AttackIn forecast 34

33 DefenceIn forecast 26

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Monza

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Parma

Monza

0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 3.50

0.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

0% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.50 ShotsContext 10.50

2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

29% On target shareContext 38%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

64% Box shareContext 79%

0% ConversionContext 14%

1.00 OffsidesContext 6.00

17.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

73% Save rateContext 30%

45% PossessionIn forecast 41%

423 PassesContext 356

356 Accurate passesContext 288

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.37

9.00 FoulsContext 12.00

21.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

0.69 xGVia Att/Def 0.94

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

60% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

8.50 ShotsContext 9.30

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

29% On target shareContext 36%

5.56 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

61% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 8%

1.89 OffsidesContext 3.63

13.80 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.60 BlocksContext 3.30

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

74% Save rateContext 56%

41% PossessionIn forecast 49%

351 PassesContext 426

291 Accurate passesContext 364

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.67

8.70 FoulsContext 11.90

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma LL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km420 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 27 · 0 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected

L29 AugA · Juventus0–20.6 xPts
L22 AugH · Cagliari0–11.5 xPts

Monza LL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel120 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L29 AugH · Udinese2–31.1 xPts
L22 AugA · Inter1–40.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Monza
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug	7.9Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	120 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	420 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

3-5-2

40E. Corvi(G)

37Mariano Troilo 34Diego Carlos 15E. Delprato

14E. Valeri 80G. Fabbian 16L. Keita 32C. Ordoñez 27Sascha Britschgi

19E. Touré 9D. Romero

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Monza Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

20D. Thiam(G)

44A. Carboni 3L. Lucchesi 60E. Kouadio

7Ricardo Mangas 14E. Akinsanmiro 90M. Folorunsho 19S. Birindelli

46J. Robinson 11O. Forson

47Dany Mota

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Absences are shown before kick-off

Monza Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Parma+0.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Monza-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Monza · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Parma wins1 draws0 Monza wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

15 Mar 2025Monza1–1Parma
28 Dec 2024Parma2–1Monza

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Monza	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.50
Conceded per game	1.50	3.50
Match goals	1.50	5.00	2.50
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	46%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	2	2

	Parma	Monza	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.10	3.50
Match goals	1.80	5.00	2.50
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	10%	100%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	100%
Both teams scored	30%	100%	49%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Monza	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	3.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	8.50	6.00	8.88
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.50	2.50	2.96
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Parma	Monza	League
Corners
Corners won	3.10	3.38
Corners conceded	6.80	4.25
Match total	9.90	7.63	8.88
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	1.90
Match total	2.70	3.90	2.96
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 51 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.24league 2.96

Red cards0.16league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 13%

Fouls26.0league 22.1

Penalties0.27league 0.00

Home wins39%league 42%

Parma3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 4.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

D21 Sep 25A · Cremonese0–00
W28 Dec 24H · Monza2–13
D27 Oct 24H · Empoli1–14

Monza4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L19 Apr 25H · Napoli0–14
L28 Dec 24A · Parma1–27
D6 Oct 24H · AS Roma1–13
D13 Apr 24A · Bologna0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.