PEC Zwolle vs Ajax – 9 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 13:30 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle

0–2Full time

Ajax

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. PEC Zwolle had 84 days of rest, Ajax 84 and had to travel 83 km.

Away travel83 kmRest days84 · 84Matches / 14d0 · 0

PEC Zwolle23%

Draw23%

Ajax54%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.80

PEC Zwolle25%

Draw25%

Ajax51%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.65

PEC Zwolle23%

Draw23%

Ajax54%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.80

PEC Zwolle17%

Draw21%

Ajax62%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.02

PEC Zwolle23%

Draw23%

Ajax54%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.78

Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 38

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

Ajax

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

17 AttackIn forecast 66

14 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

Ajax

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.50 ShotsContext 13.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

33% On target shareContext 37%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

64% Box shareContext 56%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.20

15.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.80 BlocksContext 3.90

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

65% Save rateContext 68%

46% PossessionIn forecast 54%

376 PassesContext 493

295 Accurate passesContext 414

78% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.20 FoulsContext 9.40

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest84 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel83 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	84Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May	84Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	83 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

30R. Thomas 8T. Sommer

22I. Cissoko 25T. Oosting 11D. Mbayo

10Koen Kostons

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1M. ter Stegen(G)

12Caio Henrique 15Y. Baas 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa

10O. Gloukh 6Y. Regeer 18D. Klaassen

68Abdellah Ouazane 9K. Dolberg 23S. Berghuis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Ajax+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home No home games yet this season.

Ajax · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 PEC Zwolle wins2 draws3 Ajax wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 60%

1 Mar 2026PEC Zwolle0–0Ajax
13 Sep 2025Ajax3–1PEC Zwolle
9 Mar 2025PEC Zwolle0–1Ajax
24 Nov 2024Ajax2–0PEC Zwolle
17 Dec 2023Ajax2–2PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.88
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	55%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	PEC Zwolle	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.50
Conceded per game	2.10	1.00
Match goals	3.10	2.50	2.88
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.40
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	PEC Zwolle	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.33
Corners conceded	5.10	5.89
Match total	10.10	10.22	13.60
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.80
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	2.60	3.40	2.40
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.45league 2.33

Red cards0.05league 0.00

Cards 5+26%league 0%

Fouls22.9league 20.0

Penalties0.13league 0.00

Home wins47%league 33%

PEC Zwolle4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 Dec 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–03
L31 Aug 25H · Utrecht0–22
L11 Aug 24A · Utrecht0–13
W22 Oct 23A · Excelsior4–22

Ajax3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.0.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Jan 26H · FC Volendam2–01
D1 Nov 25H · Heerenveen1–10
W10 Aug 25H · Telstar2–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.