PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen – 29 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 4 Sat, Aug 29 · 20:00 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 14th · 3 pts · 3 played LLW

1–3Full time

NEC Nijmegen 11th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.

NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. PEC Zwolle had 7 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 4 and had to travel 76 km.

Away travel76 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

PEC Zwolle28%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen48%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.73

PEC Zwolle30%

Draw26%

NEC Nijmegen44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

PEC Zwolle27%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen49%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.73

PEC Zwolle22%

Draw22%

NEC Nijmegen56%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.94

PEC Zwolle29%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen48%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.73

Over 2.5 58% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 64

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

NEC Nijmegen

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

17 AttackIn forecast 37

14 DefenceIn forecast 33

38 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

NEC Nijmegen

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.94 xGVia Att/Def 2.57

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

67% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.67 ShotsContext 24.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

34% On target shareContext 29%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

57% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 10%

— OffsidesContext 2.50

23.67 Shots allowedContext 8.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

7.33 BlocksContext 3.50

5.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00

81% Save rateContext 40%

33% PossessionIn forecast 70%

287 PassesContext 572

211 Accurate passesContext 496

73% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.91 Team ratingContext 7.09

10.33 FoulsContext 13.00

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 2.66

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -1.36

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.40 ShotsContext 18.60

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

32% On target shareContext 32%

6.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

58% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

18.40 Shots allowedContext 10.40

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

5.00 BlocksContext 2.56

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 56%

351 PassesContext 453

271 Accurate passesContext 365

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.90 FoulsContext 12.50

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle LLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km229 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W22 AugA · Heerenveen2–00.7 xPts
L16 AugA · Twente1–30.6 xPts
L9 AugH · Ajax0–20.9 xPts

NEC Nijmegen LW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel76 km3,558 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 41 · 3 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

W15 AugA · Willem II4–12.0 xPts
L8 AugH · Telstar1–22.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 22 Aug	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - Play-off round, 25 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	76 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	229 km	3,558 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

9E. Sørensen 25T. Oosting 11D. Mbayo

10Koen Kostons

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 17B. Nuytinck 21T. Storm

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton 35Jamiro Monteiro 19A. Tahaui

10D. Tadić

30B. Linssen 9T. Chery

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+0.8 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
NEC Nijmegen-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

NEC Nijmegen · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 PEC Zwolle wins1 draws4 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

24 Jan 2026NEC Nijmegen2–1PEC Zwolle
25 Oct 2025PEC Zwolle2–2NEC Nijmegen
11 Jan 2025PEC Zwolle0–1NEC Nijmegen
24 Aug 2024NEC Nijmegen1–0PEC Zwolle
9 Dec 2023PEC Zwolle1–3NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.50
Conceded per game	1.67	1.50
Match goals	2.67	4.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	33%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	33%	50%
Both teams scored	33%	100%	59%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	3	2

	PEC Zwolle	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.30
Conceded per game	2.40	1.50
Match goals	3.50	2.80	3.00
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	2.67	7.50
Corners conceded	7.00	2.00
Match total	9.67	9.50	10.65
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	2.67	2.50	2.27
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/2

	PEC Zwolle	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	6.22
Corners conceded	5.80	3.22
Match total	9.40	9.44	10.65
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.00	1.80
Match total	2.20	3.50	2.27
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.19league 2.19

Red cards0.14league 0.07

Cards 5+27%league 11%

Fouls21.9league 20.4

Penalties0.23league 0.07

Home wins45%league 37%

PEC Zwolle8 with this referee

Record1-5-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 Aug 25H · Twente1–04
D11 May 25H · GO Ahead Eagles1–11
D5 Apr 25A · Almere City FC2–22
D1 Feb 25H · Utrecht3–32
L13 Dec 24H · Willem II0–10

NEC Nijmegen6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 2

D25 Apr 26A · Twente1–12
W14 Mar 26A · PSV Eindhoven3–23
W7 Feb 26H · Heracles4–10
L1 Dec 24H · Ajax1–21
D11 Nov 23A · Twente3–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.