Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 17). Pisa had 8 days of rest, Parma 9 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days8 · 9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Pisa33%
Draw29%
Parma37%
Pisa34%
Draw27%
Parma39%
Pisa33%
Draw30%
Parma38%
Pisa27%
Draw28%
Parma44%
Pisa35%
Draw27%
Parma38%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 72
Team strength
Pisa
Parma
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
15
AttackIn forecast
20
21
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaParma
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
46%
Scored inContext
46%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
9.77
ShotsContext
10.54
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
25%
On target shareContext
29%
7.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
67%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.64
OffsidesContext
1.60
15.85
Shots allowedContext
13.38
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
4.67
BlocksContext
3.92
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
71%
Save rateContext
70%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
307
PassesContext
325
236
Accurate passesContext
250
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.69
FoulsContext
10.69
12.46
Fouls sufferedContext
14.15
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
50%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
10.70
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
26%
On target shareContext
27%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
71%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.67
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.89
BlocksContext
3.78
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
68%
Save rateContext
71%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
307
PassesContext
324
236
Accurate passesContext
248
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.90
FoulsContext
10.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km223 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 223 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
33A. Calabresi
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
36G. Piccinini
15I. Touré
18M. Nzola
9H. Meister
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
15E. Delprato
27Sascha Britschgi
16L. Keita
8N. Estévez
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
7A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Parma-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.14
- Conceded
- 0.57
Parma · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game | 9 of 24 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.15 | 2.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 54% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Pisa | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.15 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.53 | 8.33 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 6/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 5/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 3.54 | 3.84 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Pisa | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.55 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.91
Red cards0.19league 0.15
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls24.8league 26.0
Penalties0.21league 0.32
Home wins25%league 40%
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
Parma3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 Oct 25H · Lecce0–11
- D18 May 25H · Napoli0–02
- D5 Apr 25H · Inter2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa13 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Parma13 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
