Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Sassuolo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Pisa. Pisa had 7.8 days of rest, Sassuolo 6.1 and had to travel 112 km.
Away travel112 kmRest days7.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Pisa32%
Draw29%
Sassuolo39%
Pisa35%
Draw27%
Sassuolo38%
Pisa33%
Draw29%
Sassuolo38%
Pisa26%
Draw28%
Sassuolo46%
Pisa33%
Draw27%
Sassuolo40%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 9
Team strength
Pisa
Sassuolo
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
15
AttackIn forecast
41
21
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaSassuolo
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.09
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
50%
Scored inContext
64%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
10.09
ShotsContext
10.59
3.28
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
27%
On target shareContext
36%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.55
71%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.81
OffsidesContext
2.16
15.55
Shots allowedContext
13.55
4.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
4.29
BlocksContext
3.14
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.95
69%
Save rateContext
74%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
304
PassesContext
391
231
Accurate passesContext
322
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.68
FoulsContext
12.32
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.30
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
28%
On target shareContext
37%
8.89
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
78%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.22
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.90
BlocksContext
3.10
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
64%
Save rateContext
75%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
300
PassesContext
394
225
Accurate passesContext
325
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.70
FoulsContext
11.80
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel112 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 112 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 435 km | 1,041 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
22S. Scuffet(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
3S. Angori
20M. Aebischer
6M. Marin
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
32S. Moreo
9H. Meister
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
90I. Koné
18N. Matić
42K. Thorstvedt
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
10D. Berardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Sassuolo+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-6
- Scored
- 0.18
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sassuolo · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Udinese | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Como | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Genoa | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Torino | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bologna | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Napoli | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 63 · 0.62 per game | 25 of 63 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Pisa wins1 draws0 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Nov 2025Sassuolo2–2Pisa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 1.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.36 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 45% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 45% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 36% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Pisa | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 3.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 9.09 | 7.87 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 9% 2/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 4.22 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Pisa | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.70 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.60 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.79
Red cards0.11league 0.16
Cards 5+0%league 36%
Fouls22.9league 25.6
Penalties0.22league 0.32
Home wins33%league 38%
Pisa2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D2 Nov 25A · Torino2–21
- D24 Aug 25A · Atalanta1–10
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa22 games · scored 18 · conceded 37
4
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
10
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
11
76-90
Sassuolo22 games · scored 24 · conceded 28
7
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
8
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
