Plzen
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 18:00
Doosan Aréna, Plzeň
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel766 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Plzen—%
Draw—%
FK Crvena Zvezda—%
Weather (Plzeň)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 123
Team strength
Plzen
FK Crvena Zvezda
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
54
AttackIn forecast
40
43
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFK Crvena Zvezda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PlzenFK Crvena Zvezda
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.40
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
33%
On target shareContext
25%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
60%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.60
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.70
BlocksContext
3.17
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
88%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
367
PassesContext
474
285
Accurate passesContext
388
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.97
13.40
FoulsContext
12.43
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Plzen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,532 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel766 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Plzen |
FK Crvena Zvezda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 766 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,532 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Plzen
Confirmed XI
44F. Wiegele(G)
5K. Spáčil
40S. Dweh
98F. Prebsl
14Merchas Doski
19C. Souaré
17P. Hrošovský
6L. Červ
99Amar Memić
9D. Višinský
80P. Adu
FK Crvena Zvezda
Confirmed XI
1Matheus(G)
30F. Tebo Uchenna
13M. Veljković
32D. Luckassen
70M. Cham
21T. Elšnik
33R. Krunić
22V. Kostov
4M. Ivanić
7M. Arnautović
14O. Bukari
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Plzen
Absences are shown before kick-off
FK Crvena Zvezda
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Plzen · Home
No home games yet this season.
FK Crvena Zvezda · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Plzen wins0 draws1 FK Crvena Zvezda wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 20 Aug 2026FK Crvena Zvezda3–0Plzen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Plzen | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Plzen | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Plzen | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 6.00 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Plzen | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.40 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.24league 4.00
Red cards0.12league 0.21
Cards 5+26%league 43%
Fouls21.7league 22.9
Penalties0.31league 0.57
Home wins44%league 57%
Plzen2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D13 Mar 25A · Lazio1–12
- W2 Aug 22A · Sheriff Tiraspol2–13
FK Crvena Zvezda1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Nov 23A · BSC Young Boys0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Plzen1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.